CHISINAU, Moldova — On a cold morning in the capital of Moldova, Petru Murzin, a 39-year-old postal employee, is bracing himself for what he fears will be a harsh winter due to an impending energy crisis. There is growing concern among citizens that many may face “no heating, no light” as the reality of energy supply cuts looms closer.
Starting January 1, Russia’s energy corporation Gazprom plans to cut off gas supplies to Moldova, citing an alleged debt of $709 million for previous deliveries. This claim is strongly contested by Moldova’s government, which is pro-Western and has accused Russia of manipulating energy supplies for political gain and to create instability within the country.
“I feel that we’ve entered a crisis that is quite difficult to resolve. Price increases are one concern, but not having any gas at all is a completely different issue,” Murzin mentioned. He noted that this cessation of gas will lead to the disruption of operations at the Kuciurgan power plant, Moldova’s largest facility, situated in the separatist region of Transnistria, thus jeopardizing electricity for much of Moldova.
In addition to this, Transnistria recently declared a state of emergency due to fears that they may also face gas shortages, which could leave its approximately 470,000 residents in jeopardy. Many in this region communicate in Russian, and many hold Russian citizenship.
On December 13, the Moldovan parliament took proactive measures by voting to declare a state of emergency within the energy sector. This legislative decision was made in light of fears that the nation could experience severe energy shortages this winter, potentially leading to a humanitarian crisis in Transnistria, where the consequences of a gas supply loss would be immediate and harsh.
Experts predict that those living in Transnistria may be driven to seek essential services in Moldova as temperatures throughout the region often plummet below freezing, elevating the urgency of the situation.
Cristian Cantir, an associate professor of international relations from Oakland University, indicated Moscow appears to be leveraging the potential humanitarian crisis as a means to stretch Moldova’s resources even further, potentially intensifying conflict between the capital Chisinau and Tiraspol, the de facto capital of Transnistria. “This could incite fear among Moldovan citizens, leading them to blame the government for rising energy prices, which will become a significant topic ahead of the forthcoming parliamentary elections in 2025,” he remarked.
In response to the energy forecast, the Moldovan government announced a range of energy-saving strategies that will commence on January 1. These include reducing lighting in public spaces and among businesses by at least 30% and scheduling energy-intensive operations during off-peak hours.
Nicoleta Neagu, a Moldovan citizen based in Germany, expressed her hope for mindful energy consumption: “We’ll probably have to save power until we find a solution. It’s important for us to take this seriously and not waste power unnecessarily.”
Moldovan Prime Minister Dorin Recean has publicly accused Moscow of using energy supplies as a political weapon, insisting that the government does not recognize the debt claimed by Gazprom due to findings from an international audit that he says invalidate that claim.
“This decision is indicative of the Kremlin’s intent to deprive Transnistria’s inhabitants of light and heat during winter,” Recean asserted.
For Chisinau resident Iuliana, a power outage could jeopardize her online job, which could become untenable if heating systems fail amid winter’s chill. “We’re anxious, but the mild temperatures allow us to turn on heating only during evenings while in the office,” she shared, adding, “But working from home, I am directly impacted.”
Judging by how Moldova has faced various crises lately, Iuliana stated, “It is concerning, as we deal with energy and gas issues for the first time.”
Moldovan President Maia Sandu criticized the actions of Gazprom, claiming that the country has gas supplies sufficient for the heating season and would implement measures to ensure continuous electricity. She also mentioned strategies are being developed for humanitarian aid targeting Transnistria residents.
“The Kremlin is resorting to energy coercion again to disrupt our stability, influence the 2025 parliamentary elections, and hinder our European aspirations,” she emphasized, urging unity and prudent energy use among the citizens.
Olga Rosca, an adviser to President Sandu, relayed that most regions of Moldova, excluding Transnistria, “shouldn’t expect significant disruptions,” with any decrease in electric supply from Transnistria likely to be compensated by more costly imports from the European Union. Nevertheless, she acknowledged that any crisis arising in Transnistria would have cascading effects on all of Moldova.
Moldova has continuously accused Russia of conducting a broad “hybrid war” aimed at undermining the government’s stability by meddling in elections, financing anti-government protests, and deploying disinformation campaigns to impede the nation’s European integration efforts.
The Kuciurgan plant was privatized in 2004, later acquiring ownership by a Russian state company, but Chisinau refuses to recognize the privatization agreement. Prime Minister Recean has requested the justice minister to reassess nationalization laws to potentially reclaim strategic assets that have been appropriated, referring specifically to Moldovagaz, Moldova’s primary gas operator where Gazprom has a significant stake.
Moldova contends that its actual debt amounts to around $8.6 million, a stark contrast to the figure asserted by Gazprom. The energy company mentioned that it retains the right to proceed with further action, including terminating its contract with Moldovagaz.
In late 2022, Moldova experienced severe power outages due to Russian attacks on Ukraine, a nation which shares a power link with the Kuciurgan plant. During the onset of the war, Moldova relied solely on Russia for natural gas but has since been diversifying its energy resources and now seeks gas supplies from other European markets.
As Murzin anticipates the upcoming energy shortage, he expects a significant number of people from Transnistria to cross into Moldova for warmth and supplies. “I believe the border will be packed with cars for several kilometers,” he predicted. “Many will arrive here in search of heat.”
