The U.S. Census Bureau is set to alter its methodology for counting immigrants in its annual estimates, opting to incorporate a broader group of individuals who have been granted entry for humanitarian, often temporary, reasons. This change aims to provide a more accurate representation of population dynamics throughout the current decade, as announced by officials on Monday.
The updated population estimates, which encompass immigration figures, are scheduled for release on Thursday, revealing how the populations of the United States and its 50 states have shifted over the past year. Notably, the revised approach will be applied both at the national level and across individual states.
As of 2023, the proportion of U.S. residents born outside the country has climbed to its peak in over a hundred years and may even rise further due to the newly implemented counting method. However, Census Bureau representatives did not disclose their expectations regarding the potential increase in immigration numbers that will be included in the upcoming report.
Estimating the number of new immigrants poses significant challenges for the U.S. annual population counts. While the recent change in methodology is coincidental, it arrives at a crucial time, just a month before President-elect Donald Trump is expected to return to the White House. Trump has made headlines with promises of mass deportations for those living in the country illegally.
“We believe this approach will help provide more accurate estimates and reflect the recent trends we have observed,” stated Eric Jensen, a senior research scientist at the Census Bureau.
The Census Bureau’s annual figures regarding the number of migrants entering the United States throughout the 2020s have consistently been lower than those reported by other federal entities, such as the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). The Census Bureau projected that 1.1 million immigrants arrived in the U.S. in 2023. In contrast, the CBO estimated the figure at 3.3 million.
Included in the new international migration estimates are individuals who enter the U.S. through humanitarian parole, a practice enabled by both Republican and Democratic administrations over the past seventy years. This pathway has been established for those who cannot utilize regular immigration channels due to urgent circumstances or due to strained relations with the U.S government. According to the Migration Policy Institute, a research group based in Washington, over 5.8 million individuals were welcomed under various humanitarian programs from 2021 to 2024.
Should Trump proceed with his intentions, the humanitarian parole system may face significant restructuring, as he has voiced his commitment to ending what he referred to as the “outrageous abuse of parole.” Every year, the Census Bureau generates its population estimates based on vital statistics such as births and deaths, alongside migration data into the U.S. and between states. These annual population figures serve as the official counts between the decennial census, affecting the allocation of trillions of dollars in federal funding across various levels of government, including the nation, states, counties, and metropolitan areas.
This article was initially published on December 16, 2024, and updated on December 19, 2024, to clarify that the new methodologies will be implemented both nationwide and at the state level.
