Over the years, determining a national champion in major college football has presented a considerable challenge.
The upcoming announcement of a new 12-team playoff format is generating excitement but may not entirely resolve the complexities associated with crowning a champion.
As the College Football Playoff (CFP) pairings are set to be revealed shortly, there remains a sense of uncertainty following a dramatic conference championship weekend.
The 13-member selection committee is faced with some difficult choices.
One of the most pressing dilemmas is whether to include Alabama or SMU for the final playoff spot.
Alabama, with a record of 9-3, is a three-loss team from the Southeastern Conference that was previously positioned at 11th in the CFP rankings.
Having not played during the championship week, it is perceived as a strong candidate for the last available berth.
In contrast, SMU, sporting an 11-2 record, began the week ranked 8th but fell short of an automatic bid after losing a nail-biting Atlantic Coast Conference title match against Clemson, which ended 34-31.
Though the Mustangs have two losses compared to the Crimson Tide, their strength of schedule is seen as inferior.
In an intense comeback effort, SMU managed to tie the game after trailing by 21 points, only to have Clemson’s kicker clinch the victory with a dramatic 56-yard field goal as time expired.
Following the loss, Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashley expressed his frustration, asserting, “I don’t know what to say… But we should be in, and they know we should be in, so we’ll see what happens.”
It is anticipated that the inevitable announcement will lead to discontent among coaches, athletic directors, and fans alike.
The playoff format involves more than just ranking the top 12 teams, a fact that adds layers of complexity to the process.
The top four highest-ranked conference champions will receive byes into the quarterfinals, which are scheduled to take place during bowl games on December 31 and January 1.
Teams expected to secure these byes include Oregon from the Big Ten, Georgia from the SEC, Boise State from the Mountain West, and Arizona State from the Big 12.
The first-round matchups will occur on December 20 and 21, hosted by the higher-seeded teams.
There is a unique stipulation that any of the five best conference champions not within the top 12 rankings will still be included in the tournament; this means Clemson, ranked 17th last week, is guaranteed entry regardless of its standing.
Among the teams likely to fill the remaining spots are Notre Dame, Texas, Penn State, Ohio State, Tennessee, and Indiana, with the final spot likely to go to either Alabama or SMU.
Surviving teams will progress to the semifinals, which will be hosted at the Orange and Cotton Bowls on January 9-10, culminating in the national championship game scheduled for January 20 in Atlanta.
As for potential favorites, Oregon currently stands out even before the bracket is disclosed, with BetMGM Sportsbook listing them as front-runners at 13-4.
The Ducks remain the only undefeated team in the nation at 13-0.
However, this season has proved particularly challenging to predict outcomes, even outside of the 12-team playoff framework.
Recent major conference realignments have introduced complications, seeing new entrants like Texas, Oregon, SMU, and Arizona State entering the fold.
Coupled with the rise of the transfer portal and players’ ability to profit, the dynamics of college football have shifted significantly, leading to unexpected outcomes each week.
This unpredictability has directly impacted the selection process as it transitions from its original four-team format initiated in January 2015.
An injury to Georgia’s quarterback, Carson Beck, during the SEC title game could further complicate the landscape; however, dismissing the Bulldogs entirely would be unwise.
Coach Kirby Smart remains optimistic despite his team facing exhaustion and mental fatigue: “They just keep coming, keep coming. They never say die.”
