MINNEAPOLIS — Governor Tim Walz is set to navigate a new landscape of divided government upon returning from his presidential campaign efforts, following a recent electoral shift that appears to have disrupted the Democratic trifecta he benefitted from during his rise to national recognition.
Despite Democrats maintaining a one-seat lead in the Senate, Republicans have managed to secure enough seats to potentially create a tie in the House. As of Wednesday afternoon, the House stood at a precarious 65-65, with the possibility of a 67-67 deadlock if the leaders of four yet-undecided races retain their slim leads. However, two of these races are so closely contested that automatic recounts will ensue unless lawmakers choose to waive them.
The last occurrence of a tied House was back in 1979, a period that illustrated the friction often present in shared power arrangements. In House District 14B, Democrat Dan Wolgamott was leading Republican Sue Ek by a mere 28 votes, while in District 54A, incumbent Democrat Brad Tabke was up by just 13 votes against Republican Aaron Paul. Additionally, two other races reported narrow margins of 225 votes and 160 votes with nearly all ballots counted.
Typically, recounts in legislative contests do not significantly alter results, according to insights from Minnesota’s nonpartisan Legislative Reference Library. Recounts have been known to result in minor fluctuations within single digits. A notable exception was the dramatic 2008 U.S. Senate race in Minnesota, where Democrat Al Franken overcame Republican Norm Coleman by 312 votes after an extensive recount and legal proceedings lasting eight months.
Democratic leaders in the legislature are cautioning that a split control could lead to significant gridlock as the 2024 elections approach. A tie is expected to necessitate challenging negotiations over tax and spending issues, particularly as lawmakers aim to achieve a balanced budget by the 2025 deadline.
Following the election results, House leaders offered restrained commentary on the potential for a tie. “Tonight, House Republicans broke the Democrat trifecta and restored balance to Minnesota,” remarked Minority Leader Lisa Demuth. In contrast, Democratic House Speaker Melissa Hortman urged patience while awaiting the final results.
In the Senate, Democratic Majority Leader Erin Murphy expressed confidence that her minority will continue to prioritize their core values, including initiatives centered on affordable health care, childcare, housing, and infrastructure improvements.
Historically, Minnesota has experienced a degree of divided governance over recent decades. The 2019 session, the first under Governor Walz, exemplified a somewhat productive partnership despite the Republicans controlling the Senate and Democrats holding the House.
Democrats achieved full control — a trifecta encompassing the governorship and both legislative chambers — in the 2022 elections and subsequently pushed through a series of policies that had long been on their agenda. These reforms included enhanced protections for abortion rights and transgender rights, paid family leave, child tax credits, free school meals for all children, and measures aimed at improving gun safety, among others.
Under Governor Mark Dayton, Democrats also exercised complete power during the legislative sessions from 2013 to 2014, as well as through four sessions from 1987 to 1990 under Governor Rudy Perpich. Notably, the last time Minnesota Republicans held a trifecta was during the late 1960s under Governor Harold LeVander when legislative races were classified as nonpartisan, with lawmakers identifying as either conservatives or liberals.
In 1979, a power-sharing agreement emerged between GOP and Democratic leaders following arduous negotiations, allowing Republicans to hold the speakership whilst Democrats chaired the most influential committees. While this arrangement was largely effective through the legislative process, it ultimately unraveled in the final days, necessitating a short special session to finalize essential bills.
A report from the National Conference of State Legislatures indicates that tied legislative chambers are not an uncommon phenomenon across the country. Data from even-numbered elections between 1984 and 2010 reveal at least one instance of a deadlocked chamber annually, with many cases yielding better-than-anticipated results.