WASHINGTON — On Tuesday, the Associated Press announced winners in several states right after the polls closed, and in some cases, even before any votes were officially reported.
How can this occur?
The AP has a long-standing practice of declaring winners in uncontested or overwhelming races right at polling closure, a method it has utilized for many years. This was evident on Tuesday, as the AP declared Vice President Kamala Harris as the victor in Vermont and former President Donald Trump as the winner in both Indiana and Kentucky the moment the polls closed there. Additionally, results were called for various U.S. Senate and gubernatorial races.
To determine whether a winner can be declared at the time polls close, the AP takes numerous factors into account and assesses available data. However, it does not make declarations about competitive races until enough votes are recorded to ensure a clear outcome.
Often, the races called at poll closing time involve uncontested elections where only a single candidate appears on the ballot, thus rendering them the automatic winner. In certain regions, voters may reside in multimember districts for positions like state legislature, where multiple candidates are elected within a district. An uncontested race in this scenario occurs when the number of candidates on the ballot matches or is fewer than the number of open seats.
In the upcoming 2024 election, the AP is expected to announce winners in nearly 2,000 uncontested races, as opposed to around 4,500 that are competitive.
In some instances, it is feasible to declare winners at the time polls close even in noncompetitive races with several candidates if a particular party has a track record of decisive victories in that area.
For these circumstances, the AP reviews various sources of data to substantiate the result. This includes information from AP VoteCast, which provides an in-depth survey of voters and nonvoters to understand who participated in the election, how they voted, and their motivations.
The AP refrains from declaring a winner when existing VoteCast data suggests a discrepancy from the historical political patterns or voting trends observed in the state. Results from AP VoteCast will be compiled for all 50 states; however, only a limited number of the least competitive races are candidates for immediate poll-close calls. Notably, Washington D.C. lacks an AP VoteCast survey; therefore, no races in the district will have their outcomes declared at closing time, despite the district’s history of considerable wins for Democratic candidates.
For instance, during the 2020 presidential election, the AP made calls near the poll closure in states like Wyoming, which last supported a Democrat in 1968 and where Trump achieved a 44-point lead over Biden; and Massachusetts, which last voted for a Republican in 1984, where Biden won by a margin of 34 points over Trump.
Certain states and districts are split across multiple time zones, leading to varying poll closing times. In these situations, the AP does not announce a winner until after the final polls have closed in that state or district. For example, Florida, Texas, and some other regions start releasing initial vote counts right after polls close in the earlier time zones. Votes counted from these earlier zones are factored in when determining if a winner can be proclaimed at the moment the last polls close.
Other factors considered by the AP include recent voting history in the area, statistics on voter registration, and polling data obtained before Election Day.
When these data points align and confirm the anticipated outcome in a state where a major party has historically shown dominance, the AP may be able to make the race call immediately following the end of voting.