BERLIN — European allies of the United States are preparing for a future where American interest in Europe may diminish, irrespective of the presidential election outcome. The looming possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House has sparked concerns about past tensions resurfacing and new challenges arising.

The election occurs over two and a half years into Russia’s extensive invasion of Ukraine, where the United States has played a crucial role in supporting Ukraine’s defense efforts. Questions remain regarding the sustainability of this commitment under a Trump administration, as well as the overall dedication to NATO members.

If Vice President Kamala Harris secures victory, a continuation of current foreign policy is expected. However, with rising Republican opposition and increasing war fatigue among the American populace, European officials are apprehensive about the potential waning of support.

Concerns also loom regarding Trump’s inclination to impose tariffs on U.S. partners, which adds to the anxieties of a Europe already facing sluggish economic growth. However, the fear of a Trump presidency isn’t the only issue on the continent’s mind; there’s a broader belief that U.S. priorities will shift elsewhere, regardless of the election’s outcome.

Currently, the Middle East tops President Joe Biden’s agenda, but the long-term focus is the challenge posed by China. Rachel Tausendfreund, a senior research fellow at the German Council on Foreign Relations, noted that the perception of Europe’s importance in U.S. foreign policy has evolved since Biden’s early political years. “It’s true that Biden may be considered the last president committed to trans-Atlantic relations,” she stated.

Tausendfreund emphasized that as the U.S. shifts its attention toward Asia, Europe must enhance its role as a partner and bolster its capabilities in managing its own security concerns. Germany’s defense minister, Boris Pistorius, highlighted this transition while signing a new defense agreement with the United Kingdom, expressing uncertainty about the extent of U.S. involvement in Europe going forward.

According to Ian Lesser from the German Marshall Fund, Europe is seeking reliability from the U.S., which is becoming increasingly difficult given the chaotic global landscape. He pointed out that the risk of disruption would be heightened under a potential Trump administration, but continuity is likely under Harris’s leadership, which would appeal to many involved in shaping the Biden administration’s policies.

Both the U.S. and European nations have been drawn into competition with Asia, yet the ongoing conflict in Europe elevates the stakes of any shift in American security strategy. Lesser argued that Europe’s ability to navigate these changes hinges on how swiftly they occur, noting the past frustrations U.S. administrations faced concerning Europe’s lagging defense expenditures.

These frustrations led to increased defense spending amongst NATO members post-2022, with projections indicating that a significant number of allies will achieve the two percent GDP defense spending target this year, a marked rise from just three allies a decade ago.

During his previous term, Trump had criticized countries for not meeting their financial obligations to NATO, suggesting he might consider reducing support for those not contributing sufficiently. His caustic rhetoric has raised alarms in nations border regions vulnerable to Russian influence, such as the Baltic states and Poland.

While European nations view the Ukraine war as a critical existential crisis, sentiments in the U.S. may differ. The prospects of a Trump presidency could halt American support for Ukraine, pressuring a swift resolution that may not align with Kyiv’s or Europe’s interests, according to Tausendfreund. She added that Europe lacks the military capacity to fill any potential void left by a reduction of American support.

Even in a Harris administration, there’s an evolving debate on both sides of the Atlantic regarding the future strategy in Ukraine. Biden recently reaffirmed the U.S. commitment to Ukraine during discussions with European leaders, stressing the importance of unwavering support until Ukraine can achieve a stable peace.

Biden, now 81 years old, reflected on the lessons of his tenure, emphasizing the significance of democracy and alliances. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier underlined the importance of trans-Atlantic relations, hoping Americans recognize the necessity of their allies in ensuring global stability.

Whomever occupies the White House in the coming years, European nations should prepare for a turbulent road ahead. Lesser noted that regardless of the election results, political divisions in the U.S. will likely create a chaotic environment affecting European relations.