SOFIA, Bulgaria — On Sunday, Bulgarians cast their votes in what marks the seventh general election within just over three years, amid increasing skepticism regarding the likelihood of forming a stable government to alleviate the country’s ongoing political turmoil.
Voter apathy and disenchantment with political leaders have fostered an atmosphere where extreme political factions, bolstered by extensive disinformation campaigns from Moscow, are effectively eroding public trust in democratic practices. This shift has notably amplified the appeal of pro-Russian and far-right entities.
The repetitive cycle of elections has dire repercussions for Bulgaria’s economy and its international relations. The nation stands to forfeit billions of euros in potential EU recovery funds due to stalled reforms, and prospects of achieving full integration into the Schengen zone and joining the eurozone appear increasingly bleak.
Polling stations opened their doors at 7 a.m. local time (0500 GMT) on Sunday. Initial results from exit polls are anticipated after polling concludes at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), with preliminary outcomes expected to be available on Monday.
Recent surveys indicate that a significant lack of faith in the electoral system is likely to result in historically low voter participation. According to the Gallup World Poll, just 10% of Bulgarians express confidence in the integrity of their elections—this figure stands in stark contrast to the EU average of 62%.
Observers have described the past few years as characterized by “revolving-door governments,” which has further contributed to voter disillusionment.
In the previous election held in June, no single party emerged victorious, and the seven factions that gained seats in the fragmented parliament were unable to forge a sustainable coalition. Many analysts predict that the outcomes of Sunday’s election will mirror this fragmentation.
Reports from Teneo, a political risk consultancy, suggest that these early elections are unlikely to resolve the ongoing political impasse. While former Prime Minister Boyko Borissov’s center-right GERB party is projected to secure the highest number of seats, forming a majority coalition in the fragmented parliament will likely prove difficult, according to Teneo.
“Consequently, the most probable scenarios include the formation of a technocratic government or yet another early election. Political instability coupled with an escalating budget deficit poses significant challenges to Bulgaria’s bid to join the eurozone,” the consultancy noted.
For years, the Balkan nation, home to a population of 6.7 million, has faced political strife, which began in 2020. This unrest was fueled by nationwide protests against corrupt officials who allowed oligarchs to gain control over state institutions.
As one of the EU’s poorest and most corrupt member states, Bulgaria’s struggle against corruption has been undermined by an inefficient judiciary, which is frequently accused of prioritizing the interests of political figures.
Despite a downturn in GERB’s public support, polls anticipate that it will finish first with approximately 25% of the vote. However, securing adequate backing for a stable coalition government will remain a daunting challenge for Borisov.
Analysts suggest that the pro-Russia party Vazrazhdane could potentially emerge as the second-largest faction in parliament. This far-right, ultra-nationalist group advocates for Bulgaria to lift sanctions against Russia, cease support for Ukraine, and conduct a referendum regarding its NATO membership.
The reformist, pro-EU bloc We Continue the Change/Democratic Bulgaria is expected to finish in third place.
Additionally, the Movement for Rights and Freedoms, which has historically represented Bulgaria’s substantial ethnic Turkish population, has recently split into two competing factions. One faction remains loyal to party founder Ahmed Dogan, while the other backs the U.S.-sanctioned businessman and former media mogul Delyan Peevski. Both factions are predicted to enter parliament, capturing around 7 to 9 percent of the vote each.
Moreover, as many as four smaller parties could exceed the 4 percent requirement to gain parliamentary representation, complicating the governmental formation process even further.