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AP Insight: Anticipations for Alaska on Election Day

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WASHINGTON — Alaskans will have the opportunity to influence the presidential race in the upcoming general election on November 5, where the state’s three electoral votes will be at stake. However, the competition for Alaska’s sole U.S. House seat might carry greater significance on a national scale.

The Republican Party maintains a narrow edge in the House of Representatives, making the outcome of this election pivotal for control of the chamber in the next Congress. Democratic Representative Mary Peltola faces a formidable challenge from Republican Nick Begich, particularly in the context of Alaska’s ranked-choice voting system.

Peltola initially secured her position in a special election in 2022, filling the vacancy left by the late Republican congressman Don Young. Her victory came against a crowded field that included Begich and former Alaska governor Sarah Palin, who was also the Republican vice-presidential candidate in 2008.

Alaska employs a unique primary system in which all candidates, regardless of their party affiliations, compete on a single ballot. The top four candidates from this primary, determined by overall votes, progress to the general election. Voters can then rank these candidates according to their preferences on their ballots.

In this year’s primary, Peltola captured slightly over 50% of the votes and will compete in the general election alongside Begich and two other Republicans: Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom and Matt Salisbury. Following the primary, Dahlstrom and Salisbury opted to withdraw from the race, allowing the fifth- and sixth-place contenders to take their spots on the ballot. This has now positioned Begich as the sole Republican remaining in the competition.

Stepping in for the withdrawn candidates, the general ballot will now include John Wayne Howe, chairman of the Alaskan Independence Party, and Democrat Eric Hafner, who was involved in a close race during the primary but is currently serving a 20-year prison term in New York for threatening public officials in New Jersey.

While Peltola and Begich are the most prominent and financially supported candidates in the race, the presence of the less recognized contenders could potentially disrupt their bids to secure over 50% of the votes. Should no candidate achieve this threshold, the race would proceed to ranked-choice voting.

On election night, the ballots will reflect the voters’ first-choice candidates. According to the ranked-choice voting system, the candidate receiving the fewest votes will be eliminated first. Subsequently, those voters will have their votes transferred to their second-choice candidate. This elimination and redistribution process continues until one candidate receives a majority. The Alaska Division of Elections anticipates that results from this ranked-choice voting will be announced on November 20.

Voters will also have the chance to express their preferences in the presidential election, where choices include former President Donald Trump from the Republican Party, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris, and six other third-party candidates.

Additionally, the ballot will present an initiative focused on abolishing ranked-choice voting in favor of a traditional, single-choice voting method. This measure would also eliminate open primaries that allow all candidates, irrespective of party, to appear on a unified ballot.

Here is a summary of key details regarding the 2024 election in Alaska:

**Election Day**: November 5.

**Poll Closing Time**: 12 a.m. and 1 a.m. ET (Alaska operates across two time zones). Vote counts could begin emerging as soon as 45 minutes after polls close in the first time zone, which is at midnight ET.

**Presidential Electoral Votes**: 3, awarded to the overall statewide victor.

**Key Races and Candidates**: Presidential candidates: Harris (D), Trump (R), Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Chase Oliver (Libertarian), Jill Stein, Cornel West (Aurora), and others. In the At-large Congressional District race: Peltola (D) vs. Begich (R) vs. John Wayne Howe (AK Independence) vs. Hafner (D). Ballot Measures: Measure 2 to repeal ranked-choice voting.

**Other Notable Races**: Including contests for the state Senate, state House, and an additional ballot measure.

**Past Presidential Results**: In 2020, Trump (R) received 53% of the vote, while Biden (D) garnered 43%. The Associated Press called the race on November 11, 2020, at 12:17 p.m. ET.

**Voter Registration and Turnout**: As of October 3, 2024, there are 609,933 registered voters in Alaska. Approximately 12% identify as Democrats, 24% as Republicans, 45% as undeclared, and 14% as nonpartisan. The turnout during the 2020 presidential election was about 60% of registered voters.

**Pre-Election Day Voting Trends**: In the 2020 presidential election, around 53% of the total votes were cast before Election Day. In the 2022 election, about 35% pre-Election Day voting occurred.

**Vote-Counting Timeline**: Initial vote counts following the 2020 election began at 1:15 a.m. ET on November 3, with approximately 44% of total votes reported by 6 a.m. ET.

Overall, the political landscape in Alaska is gearing up for an eventful election cycle that could have substantial ramifications beyond its borders.