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AP Insights: Anticipations for Indiana’s Election Day

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AP Insights: Anticipations for Indiana’s Election Day

Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and former Republican President Donald Trump are set to contend for Indiana’s 11 electoral votes during the upcoming Election Day, which is scheduled for November 5. In addition to the presidential race, the ballot will include a variety of federal and state elections. Notably, two of the state’s most significant elected positions will witness turnover, as neither the governor nor the U.S. Senate will have incumbents running for re-election.

Historically, Indiana has favored Republican presidential candidates, winning 13 out of the last 14 elections. The sole Democratic victory during this period was in 2008, when Barack Obama, then a senator, became the first Democrat to carry Indiana since Lyndon Johnson. Since that particular election, the state has not shown signs of being a competitive battleground. Both Harris and Trump have not campaigned aggressively in Indiana since they officially secured their party nominations. However, Harris made a notable appearance in Indianapolis on July 24, addressing a gathering of the historically Black sorority Zeta Phi Beta.

Currently, Republican Senator Mike Braun is stepping down to pursue the governorship, which has made the race for that office more competitive, particularly due to Democratic challenger Jennifer McCormick’s heightened campaign efforts. An additional dynamic to watch is the Libertarian candidate, Donald Rainwater, who previously garnered 11% of the vote in the 2020 election, suggesting that he may play a spoiler role in the gubernatorial contest.

In the Senate race to fill Braun’s seat, Republican Congressman Jim Banks is running against Democrat Valerie McCray. Additionally, Democratic Congressman Frank Mrvan is vying for a third term in Indiana’s 1st Congressional District. Though Mrvan’s seat is not a prime target for Republicans this election cycle, he remains more susceptible compared to Andre Carson, the only other Democratic congressman in the state, currently representing the 7th District. Mrvan claimed approximately 53% of the vote in his last election, aligning closely with the percentage President Biden won in the district during the 2020 election.

Within the Indiana state Legislature, Republicans currently maintain a strong influence and are expected to secure a veto-proof supermajority. In total, all 50 state Senate seats and every seat in the state House are available for election.

The November 5 election will mark the first instance of new voter ID laws being enforced. Republican lawmakers have implemented stricter regulations surrounding mail-in voting, and first-time voters are now required to provide proof of residency for voter registration. Most polling places in Indiana are set to close by 6 p.m. ET, which is the earliest closing time in the nation.

Here’s a brief overview of what voters can anticipate for the 2024 elections in Indiana:
Election Day: November 5.
Poll Closing Times: 6 p.m. and 7 p.m. ET. The state spans two time zones, so most areas will begin reporting results while voters in the southwestern part remain able to cast their ballots until 7 p.m. ET.
Presidential Electoral Votes: 11, awarded to the candidate who wins statewide.
Key Races and Candidates:
– President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (We the People).
– U.S. Senate: Banks (R) vs. McCray (D) and one additional candidate.
– Governor: Braun (R) vs. McCormick (D) vs. Donald Rainwater (Libertarian).
Other Notable Elections: U.S. House, state Senate, state House, attorney general, and a ballot measure.
Past Presidential Results: 2020 – Trump received 57%, while Biden garnered 41%. The AP race call was made on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, at 8:52 p.m. ET.
Voter Registration and Turnout: As of October 10, 2024, registered voters total 4,813,264, with a turnout of 64% during the 2020 presidential election.
Pre-Election Day Voting: In the 2020 election, approximately 61% of total votes were cast prior to Election Day, while around 36% were pre-cast in the 2022 election.
Counting Votes Timeline: In 2020, the first votes were reported at 6:03 p.m. ET, and by midnight, about 77% of total ballots cast had been reported.

This election cycle promises to be a critical moment for Indiana as both major parties aim to solidify their standings in a state where the political landscape could shift dramatically.