WASHINGTON — One of the prominent figures in the House of Representatives is Marcy Kaptur, who holds the record as the longest-serving woman in congressional history. The other, Ken Calvert, is a senior Republican representative from California and heads a subcommittee tasked with overseeing Pentagon expenditures. Together, they bring over 70 years of congressional experience.

However, both are now facing potentially pivotal challenges in what could be the most critical elections of their careers. Numerous House races slated for next month are highly contested, featuring new members along with two-term incumbents who are striving to secure another term for increased seniority and significant committee positions.

Kaptur, who has been in the House since 1983 during Ronald Reagan’s presidency, and Calvert, who took office in 1993 when Bill Clinton was in the White House, have traditionally enjoyed straightforward victories at the polls. Nonetheless, their districts have undergone significant redistricting since the last census, making the races increasingly competitive. Both survived the 2022 midterm elections, but the close nature of those contests has prompted both political parties to invest millions into their campaigns, as the results will significantly influence the balance of power in the House in the upcoming year.

A defeat for Kaptur might indicate a Republican foothold in traditionally Democratic Rust Belt areas. Conversely, if Calvert loses, it could signal problems for the GOP in California, where Democratic leaders are keen to reclaim a majority in a state they already control. Notably, California accounts for about 20% of this year’s most competitive races.

Interestingly, both Kaptur and Calvert have turned down invitations to debates from local media, while their challengers have accepted those opportunities.

KAPTUR’S CHALLENGE

Kaptur represents Ohio’s 9th Congressional District, primarily centered around Toledo. With a history of strong ties to labor unions—sparked by her mother’s involvement in founding a union in a local factory—Kaptur has consistently garnered labor support throughout her tenure. She opposed trade agreements like the one established under Clinton in the 1990s, which became a significant talking point for Donald Trump’s 2016 campaign.

“She’s always had strong union support. That’s been essential for her success in various iterations of Ohio’s 9th District,” noted a political science expert at the University of Toledo. Yet, the Republican-led Ohio Legislature has reconfigured the district, incorporating more rural areas, which has shifted the demographic leanings toward Trump by a narrow margin of 3%. Although Kaptur has previously faced district alterations, such as her contentious 2012 primary against fellow Democrat Dennis Kucinich, she emerged victorious then.

Her current challenger, Derek Merrin, serves in the Ohio House and is marked as a staunch conservative. Merrin recently lost an attempt to become House speaker due to dissenting votes from members within his own party.

“He’s entering this race from a stronger position and has the potential to attract national funding, including support from House Speaker Mike Johnson,” pointed out the political analyst. Merrin’s campaign has raised approximately $1.3 million, with $431,000 cash available by the end of September, while Kaptur has pulled in about $4.2 million and has $1.7 million on hand per recent Federal Election Commission disclosures.

However, external groups are expected to lessen Kaptur’s financial edge, with Republican organizations set to spend around $2.3 million on advertising, mostly through the Congressional Leader Fund super PAC. Conversely, Democratic groups have allocated about $2 million for campaigning in the same period.

CALVERT’S CHALLENGE

Ken Calvert currently represents California’s 41st Congressional District and has enjoyed smooth re-election in certain cycles, albeit with some narrow victories. His opponent this time is Will Rollins, a former federal prosecutor known for his prosecutorial work regarding the Capitol insurrectionists from January 6, 2021.

This race marks a rematch of their 2022 battle, which ended with Calvert winning by a margin of roughly 11,000 votes. Historically, midterm elections tend to favor candidates from the opposition party, and Democrats are striving for a boost given that this election coincides with a presidential race.

Calvert has reported fundraising of about $7.2 million this cycle, with nearly $3.6 million in cash available. Rollins has considerably outpaced him with $10.7 million raised and $3.9 million in cash as of the end of September, an anomaly for a challenger against such a well-established incumbent.

External entities are also becoming more active in the costly Los Angeles advertisement market, with Democratic groups and the Rollins campaign committing approximately $6.9 million for ad spots, while Calvert’s campaign and Republican groups have reserved around $5.8 million.

In a rare visit to California, former President Donald Trump urged voters at a rally near the district to support Calvert, who also addressed constituents’ concerns regarding inflation and rising crime rates.

Political analysts suggest that the recent inclusion of Palm Springs into Calvert’s district, known for its large LGBTQ community, has significantly altered the electoral landscape. Observers expect a competitive race similar to last year’s, questioning whether Calvert can energize his traditional voter base against an influx of new constituents.

CAMPAIGN THEMES

In his ads, Rollins positions himself as a fighter against international criminal organizations and emphasizes border security and addressing the fentanyl crisis. He presents himself as a political outsider committed to curbing corruption and pushing for reforms like term limits and regulation against Congress members trading stocks.

Meanwhile, Calvert focuses on rising taxes and the costs of living, launching campaigns that assert, “Democrats have made California unaffordable. Extreme liberal Will Rollins will exacerbate the issue.” Calvert has also criticized Rollins’ prosecutorial record as being overly lenient.

In the Ohio race, numerous ads from Democratic groups target Merrin’s stance on abortion rights, accusing him of being out of touch with voters’ needs for affordable living and job creation.

Merrin counters by emphasizing his alignment with Trump’s immigration policies, including advocating for enhanced border security. A voter in one of his ads claims to have switched from being a Democrat to supporting Merrin due to concerns over safety and community issues linked to open borders.