NEW YORK — On Tuesday, the leading retail association in the United States announced its projections for consumer spending during the upcoming holiday season, indicating an increase compared to previous years. However, the growth rate is expected to be slower than that experienced last year due to ongoing worries about inflation and rising prices.

The National Retail Federation has predicted that during the months of November and December, shoppers will spend between $979.5 billion and $989 billion. This forecast reflects a modest increase of 2.5% to 3.5% from the holiday sales figures of the prior year.

In contrast, holiday spending in 2023 amounted to $955.6 billion, which represented a 3.9% increase compared to 2022. The retail association’s estimates are informed by government data, which notably excludes revenue generated by automobile dealerships, gasoline outlets, and restaurants.

In developing this forecast, the group takes into account a variety of economic indicators. Factors such as employment rates, wage growth, consumer confidence, disposable income, access to credit, prior retail performance, and even weather conditions play a crucial role in shaping these consumer spending outlooks.