VILNIUS, Lithuania — On Sunday, voters in Lithuania participated in the initial round of parliamentary elections, which could potentially see the current center-right governing coalition displaced by the opposition Social Democrats along with smaller center-left parties.
Despite having achieved notable economic advancements, the conservative government led by Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonyt?, which assumed office in 2020, has faced backlash due to stringent COVID-19 policies and a significant rise in migrant arrivals.
Lithuania, as a member of the European Union, has recorded substantial annual growth in personal income and maintains one of the lowest inflation rates across the 27-nation bloc. Yet, a considerable number of voters appear dissatisfied with the current administration.
“There is considerable disenchantment and unrest among the electorate,” explained Rima Urbonait?, a political analyst from Mykolas Romeris University in Vilnius. “This dissatisfaction stems from a variety of crises and disturbances, which economic improvements in purchasing power cannot address.”
Criticism of Šimonyt?’s handling of the pandemic has been prevalent, with many expressing that the government failed to adequately support businesses during lockdowns. Additionally, concerns have been raised regarding the accessibility of healthcare services for numerous individuals.
Moreover, Šimonyt? has come under fire for her approach to managing the influx of migrants from Belarus, who are perceived to be orchestrated by the neighboring country along with Russia, predominantly comprising individuals from Africa and the Middle East.
A recent poll conducted by Vilmorus indicates that the Social Democratic Party, led by Vilija Blinkevi?i?t?, is poised to lead the election with double the votes of the Homeland Union, headed by Šimonyt?. A newly registered right-wing party, Nemuno Aušra, established by Remigijus Žemaitaitis, also factors into the electoral scenario, having been impeached earlier this year over antisemitic comments.
However, no single party is expected to secure more than 20% of the vote, necessitating alliances for anyone aiming to assume the reins of government. The Social Democrats have ruled out forming a coalition with Žemaitaitis’ party, implying that a combination of three to four smaller parties from the political center will be vital to create a governing coalition.
“I’ve always voted for the conservatives, but this year, I’m considering supporting another party,” stated Darius Mikalauskas, a 51-year-old teacher in Vilnius. “Šimonyt? and the Homeland Union seem exhausted and would benefit from some time in the background.”
Political analysts suggest that a leftward shift in government may not significantly alter Lithuania’s foreign policy, especially considering its borders with the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad to the west. Nonetheless, these elections occur amidst rising anxieties regarding Russia’s actions in Ukraine, which heightens concerns over Moscow’s objectives in the strategically crucial Baltic region.
“Here, foreign policy is mainly dictated by the president,” noted Urbonait?, referencing President Gitanas Nauseda, who defeated Šimonyt? in the presidential election earlier this year to secure a second five-year term.
In 2020, Šimonyt? successfully led her Homeland Union to victory in the parliamentary elections, subsequently forming a coalition with two liberal parties—the Freedom Party and the Liberal Movement.
Approximately 2.4 million people are entitled to vote for 141 members of the Seimas, Lithuania’s parliament, for a four-year term, in two rounds. In the upcoming election, 70 lawmakers will be filled through party lists, complemented by representatives in single-mandate constituencies who receive over 50% of votes. The second round of elections is scheduled for October 27, when the majority of individual constituencies will determine their leading candidates.