New clashes have erupted in northeastern Myanmar, signaling the end of a cease-fire brokered by China and putting additional pressure on the military regime. The fighting involves the Ta’ang National Liberation Army and the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army, who have encircled the strategically important city of Lashio, headquarters of the regime’s northeastern military command. The TNLA spokesperson stated that the primary goal of this phase is to eradicate the military dictatorship and ensure the safety of local residents.

Despite accusations from the military regime’s spokesperson that the militias are endangering civilians by reigniting hostilities, the TNLA claims to have captured numerous army outposts and controls parts of Mogok, with ongoing battles in other key areas. In the neighboring Mandalay region, local People’s Defense Forces have also joined the offensive, seizing multiple military outposts.

The Three Brotherhood Alliance’s offensive last October saw significant territorial gains before the January cease-fire brokered by China. The renewed violence in the northeast has raised concerns, prompting China to express support for peace talks while urging all parties to abide by the cease-fire agreement. The Myanmar army appears to have anticipated the TNLA attacks and mobilized forces in response.

It remains unclear what the TNLA’s exact objectives are, but experts suggest the group may seek to strengthen its positions amid the military’s stretched resources. With new conscripts being added to the military’s ranks, preparations are being made for potential counter-offensives next year if the military can withstand current pressures.

The MNDAA’s role in the renewed offensive is uncertain, with questions about whether it will expand the operation or pursue alternative strategies. While the military continues to face losses, the pace and scale differ from previous clashes. The situation could evolve significantly depending on the MNDAA’s level of involvement.