NEW YORK, NY - OCTOBER 25: Nate Silver speaks at "On The Fault Lines: Decision 2018" Midterm Election Panel on October 25, 2018 in New York City. (Photo by Krista Kennell/Patrick McMullan via Getty Images)
With hours to go before polls close, top pollster Nate Silver has released his final prediction for the 2024 election, describing the race as “literally closer than a coin flip.” After running 80,000 simulations, Silver’s model shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a slim margin of just 0.03%, with Harris winning 50.015% of the simulations compared to Trump’s 49.985%.
The contest is expected to be one of the closest in U.S. history, with critical battleground states—Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and others—set to decide the outcome. Despite Harris’ slight lead in the national polling average, Trump holds stronger positions in several key states, including Georgia and Arizona, although he trails in Michigan and Wisconsin.
Harris’ increasing support among male voters, who previously favored Trump, could pose a challenge for the former president. However, betting markets have shown a shift in favor of Trump, with some forecasting a 10% lead for him in terms of winning the election.
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