Categories: Polls

Nate Silver’s final election prediction: Race tighter than ever

With hours to go before polls close, top pollster Nate Silver has released his final prediction for the 2024 election, describing the race as “literally closer than a coin flip.” After running 80,000 simulations, Silver’s model shows Kamala Harris leading Donald Trump by a slim margin of just 0.03%, with Harris winning 50.015% of the simulations compared to Trump’s 49.985%.

A nail-biting race

The contest is expected to be one of the closest in U.S. history, with critical battleground states—Georgia, Arizona, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and others—set to decide the outcome. Despite Harris’ slight lead in the national polling average, Trump holds stronger positions in several key states, including Georgia and Arizona, although he trails in Michigan and Wisconsin.

Key voter trends

FILE PHOTO (EDITORS NOTE: COMPOSITE OF IMAGES – Image numbers 2182486398, 2168330769) In this composite image, Democratic presidential nominee, U.S. Vice President Kamala Harris (L) and Republican presidential nominee, former U.S. President Donald Trump. ***LEFT IMAGE*** CHUTE, WISCONSIN – NOVEMBER 01: Democratic presidential nominee, Vice President Kamala Harris speaks to supporters during a campaign event at Little Chute High School on November 1, 2024 in Little Chute, Wisconsin. The event is one of three Harris has scheduled today in the swing state where she is in a tight race with her opponent Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images). ***RIGHT IMAGE*** POTTERVILLE, MICHIGAN – AUGUST 29: Former U.S. President and current Republican Presidential nominee Donald Trump speaks about the economy, inflation, and manufacturing during a campaign event at Alro Steel on August 29, 2024 in Potterville, Michigan. Michigan is considered a key battleground state in the upcoming November Presidential election. (Photo by Bill Pugliano/Getty Images)

Harris’ increasing support among male voters, who previously favored Trump, could pose a challenge for the former president. However, betting markets have shown a shift in favor of Trump, with some forecasting a 10% lead for him in terms of winning the election.

Herbert Bauernebel

Herbert Bauernebel has been reporting from New York since 1999 and currently works for Bild.de, OE24 TV, and US Live. He also runs the news portal AmerikaReport.de. Bauernebel has covered nearly all major US events of the past quarter-century, including 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, Barack Obama’s election, Donald Trump’s surprise victory, the pandemic, last year’s election showdown, as well as natural disasters such as hurricanes and oil spills. He has also reported firsthand on international events, including the Asian tsunami, the Haiti earthquake, and the Fukushima disaster. He lives in Brooklyn with his family and holds degrees in communication and political science from the University of Vienna. Bauernebel is the author of a book about his experiences on 9/11, And the Air Was Full of Ash: 9/11 – The Day That Changed My Life.

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Herbert Bauernebel

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