What are the Oscar predictions purely based on mathematical odds?

As the 2025 Academy Awards approach, data analysts have turned to statistics to predict the Best Original Screenplay winner. Ben Zauzmer, an Oscar-predicting expert who uses mathematical models, has crunched the numbers to determine which film is most likely to take home the golden statue.

Anora leads the race in probability

Sean Baker’s Anora has emerged as the mathematical frontrunner for Best Original Screenplay. The film’s strong showings in precursor awards, combined with industry trends, give it a significant statistical edge. Past winners with similar trajectories have gone on to claim Oscar gold, making Anora a safe bet according to Zauzmer’s model.

The Brutalist still a strong contender

Brady Corbet and Mona Fastvold’s The Brutalist also holds a high probability of victory, thanks to critical acclaim and recognition at major film festivals. While its statistical odds are lower than Anora’s, the film remains a major threat, especially if Academy voters lean toward artistic, thought-provoking narratives.

Does A Real Pain have sleeper potential?

Jesse Eisenberg’s A Real Pain has gained momentum after a recent BAFTA win. Films with similar trajectories have upset frontrunners in the past, making it a dark horse in the category. While math suggests it’s an underdog, unexpected voter preferences could shake up predictions.

The Substance and Challengers face uphill battles

Despite earning critical praise, The Substance and Challengers sit lower in the statistical rankings. Coralie Fargeat’s The Substance won Best Screenplay at Cannes, but history suggests Cannes winners rarely convert to Oscar gold. Meanwhile, Justin Kuritzkes’ Challengers lacks key nominations, making it a long shot based on past patterns.

Will the numbers hold up?

Mathematical models have successfully predicted Oscar winners before, but the human element remains unpredictable. Will Anora claim victory as the numbers suggest, or will the Academy surprise everyone? The 97th Academy Awards will reveal whether data or instinct wins the night.