Iran-backed proxy forces potentially involved in retaliation against Israel for assassination of Hamas leader

In the wake of the suspected Israeli assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, Iran is considering potential retaliation, and its long-standing support for regional militias may play a crucial role in any response.

Iran’s practice of supplying militias dates back to the aftermath of the 1979 Islamic Revolution, which led to the cessation of major weapon supplies from the U.S. In subsequent years, Iran’s arsenal was depleted by the war with Iraq in the 1980s and hindered by international sanctions. As a result, Iran turned to arming militias as a means of asymmetric warfare against adversaries like the U.S. and Israel.

Iran’s regional allies, managed by the paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, include groups like Hezbollah in Lebanon, Iraqi militias, Palestinian militant forces such as Hamas and Islamic Jihad, and Yemen’s Houthi rebels. These groups have received support from Iran for various conflicts and operations.

In Iraq, Iran’s support for militias, including the Popular Mobilization Forces, has grown into a potent political faction with significant military capabilities. Similarly, Hezbollah in Lebanon is known for its extensive missile arsenal and battle-hardened forces, posing a threat to Israel. Palestinian militant groups like Hamas and Islamic Jihad have also received support from Iran, despite being Sunni.

The Houthi rebels in Yemen, with Iran’s backing, have escalated conflict in the region by launching drone and missile attacks. The extent of Iran’s control over the rebels remains a subject of debate among experts, but their actions have significantly disrupted shipping in the Red Sea corridor and even reached Israel.

In potential retaliation to recent events, Iran could launch a significant assault involving drones, cruise missiles, and ballistic missiles towards Israel. This attack could involve Hezbollah seeking vengeance for a senior commander’s killing by Israel, possibly overwhelming Israeli air defenses and sparking concerns of a broader regional conflict if tensions escalate further.