Genius or madness? Why Putin wants an economist to be Russia’s new key point in the Ukraine war

A government reshuffle was expected after Russian President Vladimir Putin was sworn in last week for his fifth term. However, the replacement of Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu came as a surprise, especially with the appointment of Andrei Belousov, a civilian economist, as his successor.

Belousov, a technocrat with extensive experience in various government roles, including minister of economic development and deputy prime minister, is an unexpected choice for defense minister. His appointment is raising eyebrows in military circles as defense spending surges and Putin prepares Russia for a prolonged war in Ukraine.

The move to appoint an economist to the defense ministry is seen as an effort to align Russia’s substantial defense needs with its burgeoning war-oriented economy and military-industrial complex. Analysts from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) suggest that these high-level reshuffles indicate Putin’s intent to mobilize Russia’s economy and defense industrial base for a protracted conflict in Ukraine and potential future confrontations with NATO.

Despite Belousov’s lack of military experience, which he shares with his predecessor Shoigu, the ISW analysts believe his role will be to integrate and streamline Russia’s defense industrial base with broader economic policy. Belousov’s tenure as an economic minister and his recent work on defense industrial innovation projects position him well to lead the Ministry of Defense, according to the ISW. Additionally, his reputation as an effective technocrat and his positive relationship with Putin further support his appointment.

As Russian troops make incremental gains in eastern Ukraine and launch new offensives, the timing of this leadership change is notable. It coincides with Russia’s attempts to secure as much territory as possible before new U.S. military aid reaches Ukraine. Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov emphasized the need for “innovation” in the defense ministry, suggesting that the appointment of a civilian is aimed at fostering innovative approaches in the military sector.

Belousov is not expected to be involved in military tactics and strategy in Ukraine, which remains the responsibility of Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov. According to Tatiana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Belousov’s primary objective will be to ensure that Russia’s military needs in terms of arms are met, leveraging his interest in military technologies and innovation.