The ceasefire in Gaza is on the verge of collapse. After just 27 days, the truce could end at noon on Saturday. Israel and Hamas are preparing for intense fighting.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and U.S. President Donald Trump have issued a warning: war resumes if Hamas doesn’t release all hostages. Right now, 31 hostages remain in Gaza, along with the bodies of 36 others.
Hamas blocks release
Hamas, backed by Iran, refused to release three hostages on Saturday. The group accused Israel of violating the cease-fire agreement. Now, mediators are scrambling, but war seems inevitable.
Despite heavy casualties, Hamas stands to gain. The group’s Health Ministry claims 48,000 deaths, though it does not separate fighters from civilians. The war allows Hamas to rebuild and recruit. They gain leverage over Israel, using hostages as bargaining chips.
Hamas paraded hostages during exchanges, shocking the world. The distressing images of emaciated captives fueled global outrage. Joe Truzman, a senior analyst at the Foundation for Defending Democracy, believes Hamas is exploiting this to pressure Israel into concessions.
Hamas wants to rule Gaza
Hamas’ top demand? Stay in power. Israel and the U.S. firmly reject this. The cease-fire did not establish who will govern Gaza post-war. Hamas sees war as a way to strengthen its hold.
A return to war benefits Iran. Before the October 7 attacks, Israel was normalizing relations with Arab nations. A Saudi-Israel peace deal was close, isolating Iran. That agreement is now on hold. Richard Goldberg, an FDD advisor, believes Iran is fueling the war to prevent Israeli-Arab unity.
Netanyahu’s mission
Netanyahu has two goals: rescue the hostages and wipe out Hamas. The current ceasefire leaves Hamas’ future uncertain. His far-right allies demand Hamas’ destruction. If he hesitates, his government could collapse.
Washington’s concerns
Trump claims he will end the war quickly if re-elected. However, U.S. officials, like Secretary of State Marco Rubio, worry Hamas is using the truce to regroup. Trump supports Israel’s right to act, warning Hamas that “hell will break loose.”
The humanitarian crisis deepens
Thousands of displaced Palestinians have returned to war-torn Gaza. If fighting resumes, they will be at risk again. Humanitarian aid could be blocked, worsening an already dire situation. The war’s restart will prolong the agony for hostages and their families.
The cease-fire’s end means renewed bloodshed. Hamas, Iran, and Israel all have stakes in the conflict. Civilians remain trapped in the crossfire. The world watches as the countdown to war begins.
