EU’s Post-COVID, Energy Shift, Faces US Security Gap

In the past five years, the European Union (EU) has faced a series of daunting challenges that have necessitated swift and untraditional responses. To address the COVID-19 pandemic, EU countries collaborated to procure millions of vaccine doses and introduced a groundbreaking debt financing strategy to revive their economies battered by the crisis.

Three years ago, following President Vladimir Putin’s directive for military intervention in Ukraine, Russia tightened its grip on the natural gas supply, aiming to dissolve Western support for Kyiv. In reaction, the 27 EU member states successfully curbed their dependency on Russian energy at an unprecedented pace. Now, another hurdle emerges as they strive to decrease their reliance on the United States for security.

In recent months, prominent officials from the previous Trump administration have signaled a shift in U.S. focus towards Asia and America’s southern border, implying that Europe should independently address its issues, including the conflict involving Ukraine.

Friedrich Merz, anticipated to become Germany’s next chancellor, underscored this point on ZDF after securing victory in Sunday’s election. Merz emphasized the need to fortify Europe quickly to gain gradual independence from U.S. security support. “I never thought I would have to say such a thing on a television program,” he added, noting his surprise at the perceived U.S. apathy towards Europe’s security.

Despite being sidelined in peace talks regarding Ukraine, Merz and other EU leaders show determination to adjust to evolving security realities. It remains uncertain, however, whether they can amass the necessary military and financial resources or cultivate the political will required to safeguard their interests.

A significant security gap persists in Europe, with NATO recommending that allies allocate at least 2% of their GDP towards defense. Several EU powerhouses fall short of this target, including Italy and Spain, alongside Belgium, Croatia, Luxembourg, Portugal, and Slovenia. NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte has suggested that spending should increase to 3.5-3.7% to effectively implement defense strategies for the continent, given concerns over Russia’s potential capability to launch an offensive on Europe before the decade concludes.

According to calculations by the Bruegel think tank, without U.S. military involvement, Europe might require an additional 300,000 troops and an annual defense spending increase of at least 250 billion euros ($262 billion) to deter Russian aggression. The institute highlights that halting a Russian advance could demand 1,400 tanks, 2,000 infantry fighting vehicles, and 700 artillery pieces, surpassing the combined combat strength of the French, German, Italian, and British land forces.

In Ukraine, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has advocated for a deployment of 150,000 European troops to prevent a resurgence of conflict post-ceasefire. However, Europe’s existing military forces are insufficient. A proposed strategy would involve fewer than 30,000 European troops supported by aerial and naval force, but rallying even this number is a formidable challenge.

As defense spending in Europe has surged following Russia’s aggressive maneuvers, much of it is directed towards arming Ukraine and replenishing Europe’s depleted stockpiles, leading to a surge in prices due to heightened demand. Yet, Europe lacks efficient military transport and logistics infrastructure, and its combined armed forces, totaling around 2 million personnel, are largely unprepared for deployment. Consequently, discussions about reinstating conscription are gaining momentum.

To address these constraints, the European Commission is easing fiscal rules, permitting EU nations to temporarily extend defense budgets. Although not a definitive solution, this initiative could motivate increased military funding. Uncertainty looms on whether Merz will lessen Germany’s resistance to EU defense bonds, which, akin to post-pandemic recovery efforts, would involve joint borrowing for grants and low-interest loans. France, Italy, Poland, and Spain are already in favor of such bonds.

On March 19, the European Commission is set to release a “white paper” outlining major military projects, strategies to bolster Europe’s defense sector, and methods of financing. In the long term, the EU’s next seven-year financial framework will shift more spending towards security.

EU Budget Commissioner Piotr Serafin recently remarked on reviving the debate on Europe’s defense capabilities, emphasizing the need for action now as the effects of the new budget may only materialize by 2030.

Funding this transition to a new security landscape presents substantial challenges. Moreover, finding the political resolve and unity to oppose a formidable adversary like Russia is scarcely available. Europe’s long-standing reliance on U.S. military support has bred dependency that is difficult to shake off.

Back in 2016, even before Donald Trump’s presidency, former EU Council President Herman Van Rompuy proclaimed that the EU “cannot become a truly regional and global actor without a relevant military dimension.” Yet, accomplishing consensus among the 27 individual member states is no easy feat.

Merz may bring stabilization to Germany despite the strong performance of the hard right in recent elections. Meanwhile, France’s current government stands on shaky ground, Spain leans on minor parties to uphold its coalition, and the Dutch cabinet, led by Geert Wilders, is frail. In Poland, despite apparent strength under Prime Minister Donald Tusk, impending presidential elections present a strong right-wing candidate. Belgium recently formed a new government after protracted negotiations.

Italy’s administration under Premier Georgia Meloni seems most stable, though its ruling party’s roots in neo-fascism add unpredictability. Smaller EU countries like Hungary and Slovakia have acted disruptively, hindering EU consensus on support for Ukraine. Only a collective recognition of the security threat facing Europe could galvanize genuine action.