EU Considers €800B Defense Plan Amid Potential US Pullback

BRUSSELS — The European Union’s top executive has unveiled an ambitious proposal to bolster the defenses of EU countries with an extensive 800 billion-euro ($841 billion) initiative. This strategic plan, announced on Tuesday, aims to address potential risks posed by U.S. withdrawal from international defense commitments and to empower Ukraine with military strength necessary for negotiations with Russia, especially in light of the recent American aid freeze.

European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen presented the comprehensive “REARM Europe” package to the 27 EU leaders. These leaders will convene in Brussels on Thursday for an emergency meeting, prompted by political turmoil in Washington where former President Donald Trump has expressed doubts about his commitment to the continent and support for Ukraine. Von der Leyen emphasized the severity of the current threats they are facing, noting that discussions on the plan were already underway before Trump’s recent decision to halt military aid to Ukraine.

The dilemma EU nations face is rooted in decades of minimal defense spending, influenced by reliance on the U.S. nuclear shield and economic stagnation that hinders a rapid increase in defense budgets. This situation has often relegated the EU to the periphery of global diplomatic affairs.

To facilitate increased defense spending without breaching fiscal limitations, the proposed funds would involve adjusting EU budgetary constraints. This would enable member states to boost their defense budgets significantly without triggering penalties for excessive deficits. “If member states increase their defense spending by 1.5% of GDP on average, this could create fiscal space close to 650 billion euros ($683 billion) over four years,” von der Leyen stated. Furthermore, a 150 billion-euro ($157 billion) loan program, supported by the EU budget, would be available for defense investments.

The focus will be on enhancing various military capabilities, including air and missile defense, artillery, ammunition, drones, anti-drone systems, and cyber defense measures. This strategic plan necessitates a significant rise in military investments from EU countries, aiming for more than 3% of GDP, as stressed by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte. Although immediate consensus beyond strong verbal commitments is uncertain, the proposal will dominate Thursday’s summit agenda.

Aiding Ukraine is a crucial aspect of von der Leyen’s strategy. Her plan emphasizes the relevance of joint military equipment purchases to solidify Ukraine’s defense. “This equipment allows member states to significantly escalate their support to Ukraine,” von der Leyen asserted. As President Trump has put American aid to Ukraine on pause, pressuring its President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to engage in negotiations with Russia, the EU is keen on reinforcing Ukraine’s negotiation stance by strengthening its military capabilities.

This U.S. policy shift followed an Oval Office confrontation where Trump expressed dissatisfaction with what he viewed as insufficient Ukrainian appreciation for the substantial U.S. military and aid contributions, exceeding $180 billion since the onset of Russia’s invasion in February 2022. Trump’s actions have intensified European apprehensions regarding the reliability of the trans-Atlantic alliance, a pillar of global geopolitics since World War II.

“The assumptions we have taken for granted are being destabilized at their core,” von der Leyen warned EU leaders in anticipation of Thursday’s summit. “The rapidity of these changes is both unsettling and increasingly concerning.”

There remains concern within the EU regarding unanimity, especially with sensitive topics like international affairs and Ukraine that require concerted agreements. Hungary’s Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has previously impeded consensus among the 26 other member states. However, despite Orbán’s reservations about Ukraine’s defense and negotiation role, EU Council President Antonio Costa remains optimistic about achieving alignment on European defense.

In communiques exchanged with Budapest, Costa acknowledged Orbán’s lack of objections to reinforcing European defense capabilities, pointing out, “There seems to be wide consensus on the necessity for Europe to become more independent, competent, and well-prepared.”