Divided territory, buffer zone, and no NATO membership: Inside Trump’s potential Ukraine plan

President-elect Donald Trump has made only vague, albeit bold, statements about his intentions regarding the Ukraine conflict, but details from his inner circle are causing alarm in Kyiv.

Trump, who campaigned on promises to quickly end the war, might demand massive territorial concessions from President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to fulfill this pledge. Reports suggest that Trump could require Ukraine to cede not only Crimea but also the Russian-occupied Donbas region to achieve an immediate ceasefire.

A 1,200-Kilometer Demilitarized Buffer Zone

One proposed element of Trump’s plan includes establishing a demilitarized buffer zone along a 1,200-kilometer stretch between Russian and Ukrainian-controlled areas. This buffer would serve as a neutral space intended to prevent further clashes and create a long-term separation between the two sides. The details of how this buffer zone would operate, including who would oversee it and ensure its neutrality, remain unclear. However, the proposal signals a potential shift toward solidifying the current lines of control as a long-term reality, a move likely to spark significant controversy.

Blocking Ukraine’s NATO Membership

Another critical aspect of Trump’s potential Ukraine plan would be preventing Ukraine from joining NATO, a goal Kyiv has prioritized as a defense against Russian aggression. By barring NATO membership, Trump would signal a shift from previous U.S. policy, which has largely supported Ukraine’s aspirations to join the alliance. For Ukraine, such a limitation would mean a substantial setback in its efforts to secure long-term Western defense support, making it more vulnerable to future Russian influence and control.

Europe’s Role in Rebuilding a Reduced Ukraine

Under Trump’s vision, responsibility for rebuilding the Ukrainian territories that remain after any territorial concessions would fall to European nations. By shifting the financial and logistical burden of reconstruction to Europe, Trump’s plan would relieve the United States of these commitments. However, this approach is likely to place enormous strain on European allies, who have already faced significant economic impacts from the conflict.

Possible Confrontation with Western Allies

If Trump moves forward with this plan, which his designated Vice President JD Vance also reportedly supports, it could lead to a severe clash with Western allies. The idea of making substantial concessions to Russia and isolating Ukraine from NATO may face fierce resistance from Europe and other NATO members, as it would fundamentally alter the security dynamics in the region. Analysts warn that such a plan could not only destabilize Europe but also trigger a new diplomatic rift between the United States and its allies, who may view Trump’s strategy as a betrayal of the West’s commitment to Ukrainian sovereignty and security.

If implemented, Trump’s Ukraine approach would represent a dramatic departure from current U.S. policy, potentially leaving Ukraine with reduced support and reshaping the geopolitical landscape in Eastern Europe for years to come.