Categories: Polls

Dead heat in latest NYT poll: Harris and Trump at 48% each as they are also locked in swing state stalemate

FILE - This combination of images shows Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump and Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris at separate campaign events Wednesday, Oct. 23, 2024, in Duluth, Ga., and Aston, Pa., respectively. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon, left, Matt Rourke, File)

With just days until Election Day, Kamala Harris and Donald Trump are tied at 48 percent in the final New York Times/Siena College national poll. Despite months of intense campaigning, two assassination attempts on Trump, and a high-stakes debate, neither candidate has gained a clear advantage.

The split highlights a deeply divided electorate and poses challenges for Harris, as Democrats typically hold a popular vote edge even when facing narrow Electoral College losses. Harris had a slight lead in early October with 49 percent to Trump’s 46, but the latest numbers indicate a slip, putting the race on a razor’s edge as millions of early votes are already in.

And with just under two weeks until Election Day, neither Vice President Kamala Harris nor former President Donald Trump has taken a definitive lead in key battleground states, as shown by recent Marist College polls in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina. These close contests reflect an ongoing trend across various polls in recent weeks.

Polls Show Razor-Thin Margins in Critical States

In Arizona, Trump holds a narrow lead of 50 percent to Harris’s 49 percent. North Carolina shows a similar pattern, with Trump at 50 percent and Harris close behind at 48 percent. In Georgia, the two candidates are tied at 49 percent each. All results fall within the polls’ margins of error, making it impossible for either candidate to claim a clear lead.

Republican presidential nominee former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at Thomas & Mack Center, Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024, in Las Vegas. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)

Final Push: Harris and Trump Target Georgia

Both candidates are ramping up efforts to sway undecided voters in the final stretch. Trump campaigned in Georgia on Wednesday, while Harris is set to rally there today alongside former President Barack Obama and Bruce Springsteen.

Polling Details and Swing State Averages

The Marist College polls, conducted from October 17 to 22, surveyed 1,193 likely voters in Arizona and Georgia, and 1,226 in North Carolina. Margins of error are 3.7 points in Arizona, 3.9 in Georgia, and 3.6 in North Carolina. According to RealClearPolitics averages, Trump holds a slight edge in all seven key swing states, with razor-thin leads ranging from 0.2 to 2.2 percentage points.

Supporters wave campaign signs at a campaign event for Democratic vice presidential nominee Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz in Wilmington, N.C., Thursday, Oct. 24, 2024. (AP Photo/David Yeazell)

Trump Holds Narrow Edge in Key Swing States, RealClearPolitics Polling Averages Show

According to the latest polling averages provided by RealClearPolitics, former President Donald Trump maintains a slight lead in each of the seven critical swing states that could decide the election. These states—Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin—are all displaying razor-thin margins, with Trump’s advantage ranging between a mere 0.2 and 2.2 percentage points.

Herbert Bauernebel

Herbert Bauernebel has been reporting from New York since 1999 and currently works for Bild.de, OE24 TV, and US Live. He also runs the news portal AmerikaReport.de. Bauernebel has covered nearly all major US events of the past quarter-century, including 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, Barack Obama’s election, Donald Trump’s surprise victory, the pandemic, last year’s election showdown, as well as natural disasters such as hurricanes and oil spills. He has also reported firsthand on international events, including the Asian tsunami, the Haiti earthquake, and the Fukushima disaster. He lives in Brooklyn with his family and holds degrees in communication and political science from the University of Vienna. Bauernebel is the author of a book about his experiences on 9/11, And the Air Was Full of Ash: 9/11 – The Day That Changed My Life.