Can ‘Blue Wall’ save Harris? Narrow leads in Michigan and Wisconsin, but PA is tied–according to CNN

According to recent CNN polls by SSRS, Vice President Kamala Harris holds a slight edge over Donald Trump in two of the three “blue wall” states essential to her path to an Electoral College victory. Harris leads Trump among likely voters in Michigan (48% to 43%) and Wisconsin (51% to 45%), while Pennsylvania remains tied at 48% each—a critical state for both candidates. All three states favored Trump in 2016, while President Joe Biden turned them blue in 2020.

Third-Party Support & Voter Motivation

Michigan and Wisconsin still feature independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. on their ballots. Kennedy holds 3% support in Michigan and 1% in Wisconsin. Overall, 6% of Michigan voters support a candidate outside the main parties, with less support for independents among highly motivated voters. Among those who say they’re extremely motivated to vote, Harris leads Trump 51% to 45% in Michigan, 52% to 47% in Wisconsin, and 50% to 47% in Pennsylvania.

Poll Stability and Voter Lock-In

These results mirror late-summer polls, where Harris led Trump by 50% to 44% in Wisconsin and 48% to 43% in Michigan, with Pennsylvania tied at 47%. Most voters have solidified their choices, with only 8% in Pennsylvania, 7% in Michigan, and 6% in Wisconsin still undecided or open to changing their minds before Election Day.

Harris’ Strength in Key Issues and Demographics

Harris polls close to Trump on economic trust in Michigan and Wisconsin, trailing by only 4 and 3 points, respectively, within each poll’s margin of error. In Pennsylvania, however, Trump leads by 8 points on the economy. Harris holds an advantage in Michigan and Wisconsin on “protecting democracy,” leading Trump by 8 points in both states, compared to a narrower 4-point lead in Pennsylvania.

On honesty and trustworthiness, Harris leads Trump by 17 points in Wisconsin and 16 in Michigan, with a 7-point advantage in Pennsylvania. She also ranks higher in Michigan and Wisconsin for voters who feel she prioritizes the country’s interest. In contrast, Pennsylvania voters are nearly evenly split on this issue.

Strong Urban & Suburban Support for Harris, Rural for Trump

Harris has strong urban support in Michigan (61% to 31%) and Wisconsin (70% to 28%), with narrower urban support in Pennsylvania (53% to 38%). Trump has higher rural support in Pennsylvania (68% to 30%) than in Michigan (56% to 35%) or Wisconsin (61% to 31%). Suburban voters favor Harris across all three states, with her lead highest in Pennsylvania at 55% to 40%.

Competitive Senate Races and Early Voting Trends

All three states are also battlegrounds in close Senate races. Michigan’s Elissa Slotkin leads Mike Rogers by 48% to 42%, while Pennsylvania’s Bob Casey has a slight edge over Dave McCormick at 48% to 45%. In Wisconsin, Tammy Baldwin holds a narrow lead over Eric Hovde at 49% to 47%.

Early voting participation varies, with 36% of Michigan, 34% of Wisconsin, and 26% of Pennsylvania voters having already cast ballots. Early voting numbers lean heavily toward Harris, with early ballots breaking 61% to 35% in Michigan, 60% to 38% in Wisconsin, and 57% to 40% in Pennsylvania, a significant contrast to the 2020 vote, where Biden held a larger advantage in Pennsylvania’s mail-in ballots.

Confidence in Vote Count and Polling Details

A majority of voters across these states trust their votes will be accurately counted. Among Harris supporters, 95% or more are confident in the process, compared with about 60% of Trump supporters. The polls were conducted from October 23-28, 2024, with a margin of error of approximately 4.7 to 4.8 percentage points across the states.

Other Polls Show Narrow Trump Advantage

According to a Quinnipiac University poll, Trump stands at 47% support among Pennsylvania likely voters, with Harris at 46%, And a CNN poll indicated the race was a dead heat, with both major party nominees at 48% support.

RealClearPolitics shows that Trump leads in polling averages narrowly all swing states, except Michigan and Wisconsin.