Trump’s budget cuts may impact avalanche forecasts

LEADVILLE, Colo. — In the mountainous regions of the Western U.S., officials responsible for avalanche warnings have raised new concerns, emphasizing the potential risks posed by the Trump administration’s decision to cut numerous meteorologists and environmental scientists from federal employment. This reduction could significantly impact the critical forecasts relied upon by skiers and mountain travelers.

These forecasts serve as crucial life-saving tools for skiers and climbers navigating snow-laden gorges and slopes prone to avalanches. As of Thursday, recovery efforts were still underway for three victims of a substantial avalanche near Anchorage, Alaska, which occurred two days prior in an area where experts had cautioned that the unstable snow conditions made triggering a slide highly likely.

Avalanche forecasts are not only vital for those venturing into the mountains for recreation but also serve to protect the general population. For instance, transportation authorities use these predictions to assess risks on traffic-heavy roads, such as one in Colorado where a recent slide forced a vehicle off the highway.

“We save lives, and there are people alive today because of the work we do,” asserted Doug Chabot, who has led the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center in Montana for nearly 24 years. “If funding is slashed and programs are randomly cut, it will undermine our ability to save lives.”

Typically, avalanches claim around two dozen lives annually in the U.S. Accurate predictions concerning their probability, intensity, and location largely depend on data provided by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

NOAA supplies two types of critical data: numerical models and insights from conversations between avalanche forecasters and National Weather Service experts who help interpret this data. “We have our own numerical model, but we can’t run that without the work that NOAA is doing,” explained Ethan Greene, director of the Colorado Avalanche Information Center, which publishes these life-saving forecasts. “Without NOAA’s contributions, many aspects of our work will falter.”

Thus far this winter, 18 lives have been lost to avalanches, predominantly in remote Western states.

Weather models from NOAA are indispensable for the 14 avalanche centers run by the U.S. Forest Service, with the Colorado center receiving significant state funding. Although federal avalanche centers have been spared so far, there’s concern that this might change.

The administration hasn’t clarified which NOAA positions are being dissolved. Former agency officials worry that these reductions will have extensive adverse effects on travel safety, including aviation and shipping, as well as on tornado and hurricane warning systems.

With its workforce of about 13,000, NOAA is experiencing these workforce reductions amidst broader efforts by billionaire Elon Musk and the Trump administration to slim down a federal workforce they deem excessive.

NOAA declined to divulge specifics regarding how these cuts might impact avalanche forecasting. “We continue to provide weather information, forecasts, and warnings pursuant to our public safety mission,” stated spokesperson Susan Buchanan, without elaborating on the personnel issues.

While no immediate repercussions are anticipated, both Greene and Chabot note that any decline in NOAA’s data quality could introduce greater uncertainty into avalanche predictions.

“The parameters we currently rely on may not be as effective as they have been if NOAA’s support diminishes,” Greene noted.

On the slopes near Leadville, Colorado, Greene recently conducted a field analysis, digging into the snow to assess conditions. “It’s so beautiful,” he remarked, noting the presence of a delicate snow layer that, under certain conditions, fosters avalanches.

These field assessments, in conjunction with weather data, are essential in evaluating avalanche risk. In Frisco, Colorado, as light snow drifted over the terrain, college students Joseph Burgoyne and Michael Otenbaker prepared to ascend a mountain trail. Burgoyne reflected on the grim reality depicted in social media reports, acknowledging that avalanche forecasts are indeed crucial. “It’s serious terrain, and those reports can save lives,” he remarked. “Everyone wants to have a good time, but there are real dangers at play.”