KEYPOINTS SUMMARY
- Papal conclave begins May 7, but people are already placing bets
- Millions globally are gambling on who will be the next pope
- Italian Cardinal Parolin and Filipino Cardinal Tagle are top favorites
- Fantasy pope leagues and informal pizza bets are everywhere
- UK betting platforms report thousands of wagers
- U.S. legal sportsbooks ban it, but underground pope bets are booming
- Some Catholics are worried the sacred event is being trivialized
- Critics say the pope race has become a sideshow—but fans love the fun
Betting on the Next Pope: A Holy Wager or Just Good Fun?
As the papal conclave prepares to begin May 7, with 133 cardinals set to vote on who will lead the world’s 1.4 billion Catholics, a very different kind of excitement is building — and it’s not in the Vatican.
From the UK to the US, from Rome to Reddit, thousands of people are now betting on the next pope, turning one of the world’s most sacred decisions into a fast-growing global gambling event.
And we’re not just talking about whispered predictions or watercooler debates — we’re talking fantasy leagues, full betting odds, online games, and even $10 million on the line in unregulated markets.
Yes, the holiest election on Earth has become the latest viral betting sensation.
The Favorites: Parolin and Tagle Take the Lead
According to top bookmakers and fantasy players alike, the two front-runners are:
- Cardinal Pietro Parolin of Italy, the current Vatican Secretary of State
- Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines, a popular figure with a huge following in Asia
Parolin is considered the institutional favorite, while Tagle is the charismatic underdog — but in the world of pope betting, the odds can shift dramatically once the conclave begins.
And let’s not forget the golden rule of papal elections: the favorite rarely wins.
“It’s always an outsider,” said Sam Eaton, UK manager at Oddschecker. “That’s what makes it so fun — and unpredictable.”
Where Are the Bets Coming From? Everywhere
Oddschecker reports hundreds of thousands of users from over 140 countries have already clicked in to check or place bets. Top engagement is coming from:
- United Kingdom
- Ireland
- United States (even though it’s technically illegal)
- Philippines
- Latin America
In the UK alone, over £30,000 (around $40,000) has already been wagered — and that number’s expected to skyrocket once the conclave begins.
“It’s our busiest non-sports betting market right now,” said Lee Phelps of William Hill, one of Britain’s largest bookies.
U.S. Betting? Technically Illegal… But It’s Happening
In the United States, regulated sportsbooks like BetMGM won’t touch the papal election — betting on religious events is a hard no.
But that hasn’t stopped U.S. users from participating on unregulated sites, where over $10 million in pope bets have already been placed, according to inside sources.
Reddit threads, Discord servers, and Telegram chats are lighting up with talk of strategy, odds, and picks — turning the conclave into fantasy football for the faithful.
Fantasy Papal Leagues Are Real — And Wildly Popular
In Italy, where actual betting on the conclave is banned, people are getting creative.
A viral online game called Fantapapa (Fantasy Pope) has exploded, with over 60,000 players picking their favorite “team” of cardinals like fantasy soccer squads.
Here’s how it works:
- You draft 11 cardinals
- Pick a captain (your predicted winner)
- Earn points based on performance, buzz, and actual selection
There’s no money involved — just eternal glory and bragging rights.
“It started as a joke,” said Federico La Rocca, 23. “Now I’m addicted. I picked Tagle because he just seems fun.”
Friendly Bets: From Pizza Nights to Papal Parties
Across Europe, casual wagers are exploding. In Rome, people are placing €20 bets on their favorite cardinal, with the loser treating the group to dinner or pizza night.
Some groups are even throwing “pope watch parties,” complete with bingo cards and white smoke countdowns.
It may be tongue-in-cheek, but it shows just how invested everyday people are in the process — and how the conclave has become a cultural moment, not just a religious one.
But Not Everyone Is Laughing
While many see the pope betting boom as harmless fun, critics warn that the line between reverence and ridicule is blurring.
Anti-gambling advocates are especially concerned, pointing to studies showing that 10% of young men in the U.S. already display problematic gambling behavior.
Even the Catholic Catechism offers a warning:
“The passion for gambling risks becoming an enslavement.”
And while the Church doesn’t outright ban games of chance, it says gambling becomes “morally unacceptable” if it harms livelihoods or becomes addictive.
The Bigger Question: Why Are People So Obsessed?
Some say it’s because the world needs hope and drama, and the conclave delivers both.
Others argue that the mystery, secrecy, and global impact of the election make it irresistible in today’s entertainment-obsessed culture.
“The pope is one of the last truly global figures,” said Mauro Vanetti, creator of Fantapapa. “And there’s something thrilling about trying to guess the next one.”
What Can You Bet On? Pretty Much Everything
In addition to choosing the next pope, bettors can also wager on:
- How many voting rounds it will take
- Which day of the week the pope will be elected
- What name the new pope will choose
- Whether he’ll be progressive or conservative
Some are even predicting which issue he’ll address first: AI, climate, or LGBTQ inclusion.
Betting on the Next Pope—Holy Fun or Too Far?
As the world counts down to May 7, the buzz around the conclave is louder than ever — and not just in the Vatican.
Whether it’s cash, pizza, or eternal bragging rights, betting on the next pope has become a global obsession, blending faith, fun, and controversy in equal measure.
For some, it’s a game. For others, a spiritual crisis.
But one thing’s for sure: all eyes are on the Sistine Chapel—and this time, not just for the smoke.
