A respected nonpartisan political analyst is adjusting the ratings of five key swing states and a crucial congressional district in favor of former President Trump for the upcoming 2024 election rematch against President Biden.
The Cook Report’s decision to change the ratings comes after new polling data following the disappointing debate performance by Biden against Trump a couple of weeks ago.
Amy Walter, the publisher and editor-in-chief of the Cook Report, has shifted Arizona, Georgia, and Nevada from ‘toss up’ to ‘lean Republican,’ moved Minnesota and New Hampshire from ‘likely Democrat’ to ‘lean Democrat,’ and adjusted Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District from ‘likely’ to ‘lean Democrat.’ (Nebraska and Maine are the only two states that split their electoral votes by congressional district.)
‘The idea that the presidential race is neck and neck was a bit of a stretch even before the debate,’ noted long-time Cook Report analyst Dave Wasserman in a social media post. ‘Currently, Trump holds a clear lead over Biden and a more realistic path to securing 270 Electoral votes.’
Wasserman highlighted that ‘Biden’s drop in post-debate polls is the most significant shift we’ve seen this year,’ with Trump leading Biden 47%-44% in the new national polling average by the Cook Report released early Wednesday. ‘Trump’s current support among Black and Latino voters makes it difficult to envision a Democratic victory.’
Several national and battleground state polls conducted post-debate and released recently indicate concerning trends for the president – including Trump extending his lead over Biden and raising doubts among Americans about Biden’s ability to lead the country.
Since his challenging debate in Atlanta, Georgia, on June 27, Biden has been working to demonstrate that he is fit to handle the responsibilities of the presidency and defeat Trump.
The debate was a setback for Biden, the oldest president in U.S. history at 81. His hesitant delivery and stumbling responses in Atlanta caused alarm within the Democratic Party, leading to calls for him to step aside as the party’s candidate for 2024.
Following the recent debate, there has been a growing call from some House Democrats for Biden to step down from his re-election bid, with concerns from both House and Senate Democrats about his potential to lose to Trump in the upcoming election.
Despite these concerns, Biden has been adamant at rallies and fundraisers that he is committed to remaining in the race.
In a letter to congressional Democrats upon their return from the July 4th holiday, Biden reaffirmed his determination to continue in the race and stressed the importance of unity within the party to defeat Trump.
He warned that any wavering or lack of clarity would only benefit Trump and urged for party cohesion to secure victory in the election.
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Analysts, like Walter, have discussed the growing unease among down-ballot Democrats and donors, hoping that Biden’s team would recognize the challenges they face and gracefully bow out of the race, although this seems unlikely at present.
Recent political forecasts, such as the Cook Report’s, have shown noticeable changes post-debate, with states like Michigan and Minnesota shifting to more competitive categories due to Biden’s poor debate performance.
Biden’s campaign manager, Jen O’Malley Dillon, remains optimistic based on internal polling data showing a close race, with only a slight margin of difference that falls within the margin of error.
