The high-stakes “Super Tuesday” electoral showdown is behind us, and now the clash for the White House commences – an eight-month-long political prizefight between Joe Biden and Donald Trump awaits.
In 2020, Democrat Biden emerged victorious, but by a narrow margin. Republican Trump is hungry for redemption in this new election year of 2024.
On Tuesday, voters in 15 U.S. states cast their ballots in both parties’ primaries to determine the candidates. There was hardly any suspense: Biden faced no real competition as the incumbent president. And Trump had already vanquished his rivals early in the primaries season. His sole remaining primaries opponent, Nikki Haley, likely suffered a crippling blow with her string of “super” defeats.
Biden vs. Trump, then. The American electorate seems less than excited, as the majority had hoped for a refreshing political change with younger candidates. However, barring any dramatic developments, these names are poised to appear on the ballot on November 5th.
Trump enters the race with the advantage after an unexpected streak of positive developments: He leads the president by two to four percentage points in the most crucial polls. He also holds an edge in seven of the decisive swing states, where majorities shift between the major parties. Biden aims to at least bolster his starting position with an opening salvo against Trump during his annual congressional address (“State of the Union”) on Thursday.
Nevertheless, the Democrats are highly nervous, even panicked. It’s dawning on them: The U.S. judiciary will hardly come to their rescue. Of the four criminal trials launched against Trump last year, only one has a definite start date. On March 25th, the candidate will have to face a jury in New York over previous hush money payments. However, the case was deemed “weak.” In the more serious federal charges (January 6th, classified documents), his delaying tactics proved successful so far. The election tampering trial in Georgia (complete with an infamous “mug shot”) is currently overshadowed (and shaky) after a sex scandal involving the district attorney.
In short: Trump enters the election duel far stronger than predicted.
What are the top issues that will decide whether Biden can continue – or Trump returns?
? The combined age of both candidates is 159. Biden is 81, Trump 77. It’s a great-grandfather duel the likes of which the USA has never witnessed before. And above all, it is Biden’s biggest Achilles’ heel: More than 80 percent of voters think he is simply too old after falls, stumbles, missteps, lapses, or verbal slips. Trump performs better, even though he is only marginally younger. This is also due to his more vibrant style. But: Trump has also had some serious slip-ups recently. During a recent appearance, he mumbled something completely incoherent for a few seconds.
? Trump also scores points with fierce criticism of mass migration, which Biden triggered – and is responsible for – with his “softer border policy.” About seven million illegal border crossings were registered during his time in office, around three times as many as under his predecessor. After spending billions to care for migrants in U.S. cities such as New York, citizens’ patience is wearing thin. 61% of Americans would now even support the construction of a border wall. Trump appears vindicated on this controversial issue.
It already seems clear that the 2024 battle for the White House will not be a positive competition for better ideas. Instead, a kind of referendum is planned – on the “repulsiveness” of the other. Biden warns that the “autocrat” Trump will destroy U.S. democracy and cabal around with despots like Vladimir Putin or Xi Jinping. Trump salivates that a “senile” Biden would “destroy” the nation through woke madness, communism, climate change, and mass migration.
In the end, whoever can mobilize voters despite this expected mudslinging will prevail.
