The initial week of the latest truce between Israel and the Hamas militant group has concluded. Notably, Hamas has started releasing hostages, while Israel has freed nearly 300 Palestinian detainees. However, the agreement has encountered its first significant issue. Israel announced that a civilian hostage, Arbel Yehoud, was due for release, which has hindered the planned repatriation of hundreds of thousands of displaced Palestinians to northern Gaza.
Looking ahead, this article explores what to expect in the five remaining weeks of the ceasefire’s first phase.
To recap recent events, this ceasefire marks the second such agreement in the last 15 months during a particularly deadly and destructive conflict between Israel and Hamas, which governs Gaza. The previous ceasefire occurred over a year ago and lasted just a week. In contrast, the current ceasefire is set to last longer and may create pathways toward resolution, even though the steps involved in achieving lasting peace are significantly more complex. The mediating parties involved in the negotiations include Qatar, Egypt, and the United States.
Earlier this week, the first three of the Israeli hostages held in Gaza were freed, followed by the release of 90 Palestinian prisoners held by Israel shortly after. Another four hostages were released on Saturday, along with 200 Palestinian prisoners.
As a result of the truce, Israeli forces have withdrawn into buffer zones within Gaza, halting fighting, and allowing hundreds of trucks carrying humanitarian assistance to enter the area. Many Palestinians who had been displaced are now returning to their homes and neighborhoods, which have suffered extensive damage due to the conflict.
In terms of what’s next, Saturday marked Day 7 of the ceasefire. Starting on Day 14, which falls on next Saturday, three hostages are expected to be released every week in exchange for additional Palestinian prisoners. The agreement stipulates that by the end of 42 days, all surviving women, children, and elderly individuals in militant captivity should be freed. It’s also possible that the remains of hostages may eventually be included in these exchanges, as Israel suspects that at least a third of the over 90 captives still in Gaza perished during the initial attacks on October 7, 2023, or while in captivity.
On Sunday, Israel was supposed to facilitate the return of Palestinians to the severely affected northern Gaza region. However, officials now state that Palestinians are barred from crossing through the Netzarim corridor, a route running east to west across the territory, pending Yehoud’s release. The agreement had initially called for the release of civilian women on Saturday, but instead, soldiers were released, leading to confusion regarding Yehoud’s situation.
Hamas has placed the blame for any delays in the agreement’s execution on Israel, asserting it is responsible for the consequences. A high-ranking Hamas official indicated to mediators that Yehoud would be released in the following week. An Egyptian negotiator described the situation as a “minor issue” that is currently being addressed. Both representatives requested anonymity as they are not authorized to discuss the details publicly.
As the ceasefire proceeds, hundreds of anxious Palestinians have gathered, eager to return to northern Gaza, an area that has faced extensive destruction. Tragically, one Palestinian was shot and killed near the Netzarim corridor on Saturday, according to reports from Al-Aqsa Martyrs Hospital in Deir al-Balah. Israeli military officials asserted that warning shots were fired in response to what they described as “gatherings of dozens of suspects” and stated they were unaware of any individuals being harmed, reiterating cautions against approaching military personnel.
Looking ahead to the subsequent phase of the ceasefire, it’s anticipated that all remaining hostages will be released in exchange for a total withdrawal of Israeli forces from Gaza, alongside measures for a sustainable peace. Discussions over this second phase are slated to commence on Day 16, February 3. However, significant challenges remain, as Israel has stated it will not agree to a full military withdrawal until Hamas’ military capabilities have been dismantled. Conversely, Hamas has indicated that it will not release its last hostages until Israel fully evacuates all troops from the area.
The two parties must also negotiate a governance strategy for Gaza going forward. While Hamas has suggested it might be willing to step aside, there remains skepticism about their intentions in any prospective government—something that Israel has firmly opposed. Additionally, it seems unlikely that Hamas will disarm.
If progress is made to the third phase, it may involve less contention. The remains of any remaining hostages could potentially be exchanged for a comprehensive three- to five-year reconstruction plan for Gaza, though the financial responsibilities for such an initiative remain uncertain.
