PHILADELPHIA – Recent reports from various U.S. police departments have revealed that preliminary data for 2024 indicates significant reductions in homicides and other violent crimes compared to the previous year. However, this trend appears inconsistent with the general public’s view on crime levels.
Experts highlight that while many urban areas are experiencing a welcome decrease in crime rates, particularly those that surged during the COVID-19 pandemic, public perception has not followed suit. This discrepancy can be attributed to misleading political rhetoric in the lead-up to the upcoming elections in November and evolving interpretations of crime news among the populace. Kim Smith, director of national programs at the University of Chicago’s Crime Lab, noted, “Even a single murder carries a considerable cost.”
Efforts such as violence interruption and intervention programs have contributed to declines in gun violence and homicide rates in cities like Chicago. Nevertheless, Smith pointed out that even with an overall reduction in crime, the experience of violence within communities continues to plummet people’s perceptions of their safety. She emphasized that “the presence of those crimes is the thing that people get the most distress from” and greatly affects their quality of life and enjoyment of their neighborhoods.
Jeff Asher, cofounder of AH Datalytics, monitors crime across the nation through law enforcement data for the Real-Time Crime Index. According to Asher, while homicide rates have historically decreased, the decline in other violent crimes has been less pronounced. As cities report their 2024 statistics, considerable reductions in homicides have been noted in major cities such as New York, Chicago, and Philadelphia. For instance, Philadelphia reported 255 homicides in 2024, down from 398 in 2023. However, some cities like Charlotte, North Carolina, and Baton Rouge, Louisiana, experienced an upward trend in homicide rates.
In contrast, robbery statistics have shown consistent declines across the ten largest cities that have released their preliminary or finalized data for 2024. Additionally, car thefts have also seen notable drops. However, certain categories such as sexual assaults and aggravated assaults have increased in some metropolitan areas. Asher remarked, “In some ways, ‘Is crime up?’ is a poorly defined question,” highlighting the complexities of public perception surrounding various criminal activities.
Mike Lawlor, an associate professor of criminology at the University of New Haven, pointed out that neighborhood apps and hyperlocal news often amplify crime events, making individuals more aware of isolated incidents. Lawlor explained that the pandemic had disrupted programs aimed at reducing gun violence, which traditionally rely on in-person interactions to engage at-risk individuals.
Furthermore, political influences seem to play a significant role in shaping public opinion regarding crime. An October Gallup poll revealed a decline in the percentage of Americans who perceive an uptick in crime—from 77% to 64%. Still, this awareness displayed a stark partisan divide, with 90% of Republicans believing crime is increasing compared to just 29% of Democrats. Lawlor noted that political discourse often influences public perception, as elected officials may portray crime as more severe to align with their narrative justifications.
To deepen the understanding of crime trends, Chicago’s Crime Lab researchers conducted an analysis revealing disturbing insights. They found that the lethality associated with shootings has increased by approximately 45% since 2010, and the average number of shell casings per shooting victim has more than doubled. This shift signifies that incidents of gunfire are now often heard as sustained volleys rather than isolated shots, thereby influencing neighborhood perceptions of safety.
Despite the overall decrease in homicides, Smith highlighted the alarming reality that Black individuals face a significantly higher risk of dying from gun violence compared to their white counterparts. In Chicago, the disparity is particularly stark, with Black residents being 22 times more likely to be victims of such violence. Smith remarked, “It’s a question of who is seeing the benefits of that progress because of the way violence is concentrated,” emphasizing that gains in safety are not uniformly experienced across communities.