TORONTO — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is facing mounting calls for his resignation from within his own Liberal Party. This pressure has intensified following the unexpected resignation of a senior minister who openly criticized Trudeau’s budget management. Having held the prime ministerial position for almost a decade, Trudeau’s popularity has plummeted in recent years, primarily attributed to the escalating cost of living and rising inflation in Canada.
Currently, there is no established method for Trudeau’s party to swiftly remove him from power. The possibilities include his voluntary resignation or a possible “no confidence” vote in Parliament that could lead to elections, which would likely favor the opposition Conservative Party. If the Liberals survive such a vote—an increasingly unlikely scenario—Trudeau may remain in office until the next scheduled election.
As more Liberal lawmakers voiced their demands for Trudeau’s resignation, the Minister of Natural Resources, Jonathan Wilkinson, commented that “we all need to give him a little time to reflect.” This suggests that some party members are urging for a chance to reassess leadership decisions rather than an immediate change.
In the event that Trudeau chooses to resign, analysts suggest it could usher in a contest among Liberals for the interim leadership position until elections are conducted. The identity of this interim leader remains unclear, but potential candidates are emerging. Notably, Mark Carney, the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England, has expressed interest in a political career, making him a strong contender for future Liberal leadership.
Another possible successor is the recently appointed finance minister, Dominic LeBlanc, a close ally of Trudeau and former public safety minister who recently met with President-elect Donald Trump.
Trudeau’s leadership concerns escalated following the resignation of Chrystia Freeland, the former finance minister, who criticized his economic policies, particularly against the backdrop of tariffs threatened by the United States. Her exit came on the heels of the housing minister’s resignation, highlighting instability within the cabinet.
Historian Robert Bothwell suggested that if more ministers choose to resign, it could spell dire consequences for Trudeau’s administration. “If another minister or two goes, he’s toast, he will be forced to resign,” he remarked, indicating the fragility of Trudeau’s political position.
The opposition parties have the authority to initiate a “no confidence” vote, which could lead to the Liberal party’s removal from power and result in early elections. If the vote garners a majority against Trudeau’s government, he would face significant electoral consequences, potentially leading to his political downfall.
For several years, the Liberals have relied on the New Democratic Party (NDP) to maintain their majority; however, recent developments indicate that support from the NDP is waning, with its leader publicly calling for Trudeau’s resignation. This situation paves the way for a potential “no confidence” vote.
After Tuesday, Parliament will recess for the holidays until late next month, with possibilities for scheduling a “no confidence” vote afterward. The Conservative Party is currently polling strong against the Liberals, yet it has not officially called for Trudeau’s resignation. Observers suggest delays from the Liberal side might postpone a “no confidence” vote for several months.
In a less likely outcome, Trudeau might successfully retain his grip on power. Although there is considerable pressure for him to resign, some members of Parliament continue to show support for him. “Like most families, sometimes we have fights around the holidays. But of course, like most families, we find our way through it,” he stated, expressing his continued commitment to his party and country.
Should the Liberal party survive potential no confidence votes in the coming weeks—albeit a slim chance—the next federal election may occur by October 20. However, the likelihood of an earlier election has increased significantly. Analysts predict that if an early election does come, it might unfold in late spring unless Trudeau opts to dissolve Parliament beforehand.
Amidst these shifting political landscapes, experts speculate that the Liberal party’s best outcome may be limiting the Conservative Party to a minority government, which will necessitate cooperation with other parties for legislative success. With recent polls indicating the Conservatives leading the Liberals significantly at 43% to 23%, it suggests the Conservatives could secure a majority in an upcoming election.