After enduring months of stalemate, Israel and Hamas seem to be progressing toward a potential ceasefire aimed at concluding their prolonged 14-month conflict.
High-ranking officials from the United States, Qatar, and Egypt have recently intensified their mediation efforts and have observed a growing willingness on both sides to finalize an agreement. Notably, Hamas representatives have indicated their readiness to exhibit greater “flexibility” concerning the timeline for an Israeli troop withdrawal from Gaza. Meanwhile, Israel’s defense minister, Israel Katz, expressed on Monday that a resolution is nearer than ever before.
Despite this positive shift, it has been emphasized by officials from all parties that crucial details still require negotiation. Nevertheless, there exists a renewed sense of optimism that had been absent for quite some time.
This shift in sentiment is attributed to several influencing factors. Israel has caused significant damage to Hamas throughout the conflict. The militant group has also faced increased isolation following Hezbollah’s ceasefire with Israel. Additionally, Iran, a major supporter of both Hamas and Hezbollah, has experienced numerous setbacks, most notably the decline of its ally, Syria’s Bashar Assad.
In the United States, both the outgoing Biden administration and the incoming Trump administration have expressed a desire to finalize a deal before the inauguration scheduled for January 20.
As per Egyptian and Hamas officials, the proposed agreement would unfold in stages, encompassing a cessation of hostilities, an exchange of Israeli hostage captives for Palestinian prisoners, and an influx of aid to the beleaguered Gaza Strip. Israel claims that approximately 100 hostages are currently being held by Hamas, with more than one-third of them thought to be deceased.
Here’s an overview of the developing agreement based on observations from officials who requested anonymity due to the sensitive nature of the ongoing negotiations.
Initial Ceasefire
The first phase of the proposed plan would span six to eight weeks, during which Hamas is expected to release around 30 hostages—approximately half of those still believed to be alive, which include three or four dual citizens of the U.S. and Israel.
In return, Israel would free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners, including up to 100 serving lengthy sentences for their alleged involvement in severe attacks.
Increased Humanitarian Aid
This plan includes a significant boost in humanitarian aid for Gaza, which is currently facing a dire humanitarian crisis due to the ongoing conflict. It is estimated that 90% of Gaza’s 2.3 million residents have been displaced, oftentimes more than once, while aid workers are reporting acute food shortages across the region.
Reopening the Rafah crossing into Egypt is also anticipated as part of this plan. This crossing has been shut since the incursion of Israeli ground forces into the southern border town in May. This crossing is critical, serving as the main exit for Gazans seeking to travel internationally, and is the only point not under Israeli control.
Mediators are also reportedly deliberating a revival of a 2005 agreement that previously allowed the internationally recognized Palestinian Authority to manage the Rafah crossing with European Union oversight. However, this arrangement fell apart when Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, expelling Palestinian Authority forces.
Israeli Military Withdrawal
Throughout this initial phase, Israeli forces would gradually withdraw from certain Palestinian areas, facilitating the return of many Palestinians to their homes. Nonetheless, complete withdrawal from Gaza is not expected at this time; troops would remain stationed along the Philadelphi corridor, a vital strip adjacent to the border with Egypt.
Negotiations to End the Conflict
During the early ceasefire, both parties would continue discussions aimed at reaching a permanent agreement, which would entail an end to the hostilities, the full withdrawal of Israeli military forces, and the liberation of remaining hostages and deceased individuals held by Hamas.
Discussions would also commence regarding the future administration of Gaza and the necessary plans for reconstruction following the extensive damage incurred during the conflict.
