On Thursday, Trump’s incoming press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed that an invitation for the inauguration on January 20 had been sent. Meanwhile, the Chinese Embassy in Washington refrained from commenting on the matter. Analysts, however, remain skeptical about Xi’s attendance next month.
The reluctance of Xi to attend the inauguration stems from multiple factors. Danny Russel, a former assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, highlighted the sheer awkwardness of Xi being present amidst a backdrop of hawkish U.S. lawmakers as Trump delivers his inaugural speech. Russel articulated that Xi would not permit himself to be reduced to the position of a mere guest honoring a foreign leader, especially one from the United States.
Yun Sun, who leads the China program at the Stimson Center, noted the absence of a clear protocol or established precedent for a Chinese leader attending the U.S. presidential inauguration. She believes that the Chinese administration is likely to prioritize caution in this scenario, especially given potential implications tied to the guest list. For instance, the presence of Taiwan’s top diplomat during President Biden’s swearing-in was a point of contention for Beijing, which views Taiwan as part of its territory.
Furthermore, should Trump follow through on his threats to impose tariffs up to 60% on Chinese products upon his inauguration, Xi would face significant embarrassment for choosing to attend, something that is categorically unacceptable in Beijing’s perception. Russel also emphasized the Chinese leadership’s intense focus on their dignity and security during foreign travels, which necessitates that any visit to Washington be treated with the full honors designated for a state visit.
Looking ahead, Russel indicated that discussions for a potential face-to-face meeting between Trump and Xi might be underway. Trump has shown a preference for direct interactions with global leaders, particularly from nations with which the U.S. has competitive relations. It’s plausible that Beijing hopes to negotiate more favorable outcomes by engaging directly with Trump in person.
The anticipated return of Trump to the White House is likely to further escalate the ongoing rivalry between the U.S. and China. His cabinet appointments, which include notable figures who harbor a tough stance on China, such as Senator Marco Rubio for secretary of state and Representative Mike Waltz for national security adviser, signal toward a more aggressive approach.
While Beijing is currently in “wait-and-see” mode, it has made it clear that it stands ready to respond strongly to any unfriendly actions from Washington, such as elevated tariffs. Sun emphasized that Trump’s invitation should not be misconstrued as a prelude to amicable policies towards China. She recalled that although Trump maintained a seemingly cordial demeanor during his 2017 visit to China, he subsequently initiated a trade war the following year, reinforcing the erratic nature of his dealings.
In reflection, Sun noted that Trump’s approach often juxtaposes warmth with harsh policies, a duality that China sees as conflicting. Accordingly, this could lead to a more cautious stance from China, which aims to navigate Trump’s unpredictable maneuvers without falling into a trap, regardless of whether the overture is perceived as friendly or hostile.
