LONDON — The rule of the Assad family in Syria, which has lasted for 50 years, has dramatically fallen apart as insurgents surged from a rebel stronghold toward the capital, Damascus, capturing towns in a matter of days.
Opposition forces advanced rapidly across the nation, entering Damascus with minimal resistance as the Syrian army disintegrated. President Bashar Assad, who had led Syria for 24 years following his father Hafez Assad, reportedly fled to an undisclosed location.
This rapid change marks a significant turn in Syria’s ongoing and devastating conflict that has persisted for 13 years. Protests against the government in 2011 were met with severe crackdowns, spiraling into a civil war that has claimed more than half a million lives and displaced a large portion of Syria’s prewar population of about 23 million. With support from Iran and Russia, Assad managed to reclaim control over most of the country but left the insurgents with a significant stronghold in the northwest.
After years of stasis, the situation began to shift dramatically in late November. Here’s a breakdown of the pivotal two-week period impacting the region.
Wednesday, November 27: Rebel Offensive Launches
Rebel factions initiated a major assault on government-controlled regions in northwestern Syria, claiming to have gained control of over 15 villages in northern Aleppo province. The government and its allies retaliated with airstrikes and shelling to impede the momentum of the insurgents.
The offensive was spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, formerly known as the Nusra Front and originally a branch of al-Qaida. Though HTS has attempted to present itself as a more moderate entity, it is designated a terrorist organization by the United Nations and the United States.
This attack on Aleppo came after a period of intermittent violence, with increasing assaults on opposition-held territories. Turkey, a prominent supporter of opposition forces, noted that the rebels had initiated a limited operation aimed at countering government aggression, which then escalated considerably as government troops began to withdraw.
Thursday, November 28: The Offensive Grows
The insurgent offensive expanded to include the Idlib countryside, amid growing reports of government troop retreats.
Friday, November 29: Rebels Penetrate Aleppo
For the first time since their expulsion in 2016, insurgents entered Aleppo, Syria’s largest city, encountering little to no resistance.
Saturday, November 30: Control of Aleppo
Rebels declared their control over Aleppo, raising their flag over the historic citadel and seizing the international airport. Government forces claimed to have repositioned troops and resources in preparation for a counter-offensive.
By night, insurgents had overtaken at least four towns in central Hama province and reported that they had entered the provincial capital.
Sunday, December 1: Government Counteraction
The Syrian military retaliated with ground troops and air strikes targeting Idlib and Aleppo. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi visited Damascus, assuring Assad of Tehran’s support for the counteroffensive.
However, Assad appeared to receive limited assistance, with Russia preoccupied with its ongoing war in Ukraine and Iran’s regional proxies facing setbacks from consistent airstrikes. Hezbollah, which had previously bolstered Assad’s forces, had also significantly weakened amidst its protracted conflict with Israel.
December 2-Wednesday, December 4: Fighting Intensifies Near Hama
Insurgents pushed southward, closing in on Hama, a vital crossroads in central Syria located about 200 kilometers north of Damascus. Reports indicated heavy fighting in the province, with both state media and international observers noting that government forces, aided by Russian airstrikes, had regained some territory. Turkey called for Assad to engage in discussions with the opposition.
Thursday, December 5: Hama Captured
After several days of combat, rebels penetrated Hama. Fighters celebrated in Assi Square, the site of massive anti-government demonstrations in the early uprising in 2011. The Syrian army reported that it had redeployed to safeguard civilians outside the city.
Friday, December 6: Advances Near Homs
Insurgents rapidly captured two towns on the outskirts of Homs, Syria’s third-largest city, which lies around 40 kilometers south of Hama. Homs is strategically significant as it serves as the gateway to Damascus and houses one of Syria’s state-owned oil refineries. Securing Homs would sever the connection between Damascus and the coastal area that supports Assad.
The government refuted claims of military withdrawal from Homs. Meanwhile, top diplomats from various countries including Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, Iran, and Russia convened discussions in Doha regarding Syria.
Saturday, December 7: Fall of Homs and Weakening Control
Opposition forces ultimately took control of Homs after government troops abandoned it. Insurgents claimed they had encircled Damascus and were initiating the “final stage” of their offensive. The U.N. special envoy, Geir Pedersen, called for urgent talks in Geneva to facilitate an “orderly political transition,” while Syrian state media disputed reports of Assad’s flight.
Sunday, December 8: Assad Is Overthrown
In a surprising turn, Syrian state television broadcast a statement from a group of individuals who announced President Bashar Assad’s overthrow and the release of all prisoners. Officials from Russia and Iranian state media confirmed Assad’s departure from Syria, with his location remaining unknown.
Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi Jalali conveyed the government’s willingness to “extend its hand” to the opposition and suggested the formation of a transitional government.
