A victory in the Long Island House seat by former U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi could serve as a model for Democrat Joe Biden’s reelection campaign in November.
This win demonstrates the Democratic party’s strength in competitive suburban areas, which is also the hometown of Donald Trump. However, this positive news follows a series of difficult days for the White House. House Republicans voted to impeach Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, and a special counsel has criticized Joe Biden’s memory. Despite Suozzi’s win, it remains unclear if it will alleviate Democrats’ concerns about the president’s age and low approval ratings.
Additionally, Suozzi has advocated for protecting abortion rights, aligning with the Democratic party’s messaging since the Supreme Court overturned the constitutional right to abortion. New York will have a referendum on the November ballot to address discrimination based on “pregnancy outcomes.” Supporters argue that this measure will safeguard access to the procedure, although it does not explicitly guarantee the right to abortion. Democrats view this as an opportunity to boost voter turnout.
The Supreme Court’s decision last year to eliminate nationwide abortion rights was a milestone for conservatives who have been working to overturn the Roe v. Wade ruling for five decades. However, this ruling has become a political liability for Republicans. Voter backlash contributed to Republican losses in the 2022 midterm elections and propelled Democrats to victories in Virginia and Kentucky last month.
In the past, every statewide ballot question regarding reproductive rights has resulted in victory for abortion rights advocates, even in conservative states like Ohio, Kansas, and Kentucky.
Republican presidential candidates, including frontrunner Donald Trump, have struggled to articulate a stance on abortion that satisfies both evangelical Christians, a critical Republican voting bloc, and swing voters who support accessible abortion.
President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign and Democratic-aligned groups plan to prioritize abortion rights in the upcoming White House contest. Danielle Butterfield, the executive director of Priorities USA, a leading Democratic super PAC, stated that abortion is a winning issue for the party based on research and election results from 2023.
They intend to heavily emphasize this issue this election year.
A recent study conducted by The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research reveals that a majority of adults in the United States, including those residing in states with strict abortion regulations, believe that abortion should be legal during the early stages of pregnancy. This comes at a time when Republican-led states are enacting stringent measures to limit access to abortion, and as GOP presidential candidates grapple with how to approach this contentious issue.
The poll also explored public opinion on the legality of abortion throughout different trimesters of pregnancy. Approximately two-thirds of Americans support the legality of abortion during the first trimester (69%). However, support declines significantly to 37% for the second trimester and 22% for the third trimester. A majority of Americans oppose the legalization of abortion during the second (55%) and third (70%) trimesters.
In a notable political development, Thomas Suozzi, a candidate who emphasized his stance on abortion rights, successfully won against Mazi Pilip to replace expelled former Republican New York Representative George Santos. This victory narrows the GOP House majority to 219-213. While the district favored Joe Biden by 8 points in the 2020 election, it voted for Santos in the 2022 midterm election, in which Republicans performed better than anticipated by campaigning on stricter immigration policies and addressing rising crime rates in certain areas of New York.
The reelection campaign for President Biden highlighted that Democrats have secured numerous victories in special elections and off-year legislative races since he assumed office – and the abortion issue was central in all those wins.
Suozzi’s win can also be interpreted as a personal blow to former President Trump, considering that Trump spent his childhood in the Jamaica Estates neighborhood of Queens. However, Trump’s advisors attribute Pilip’s loss to her failure to fully align herself with the “Make America Great Again” movement.
It is worth noting that Suozzi did not fully embrace Biden, as he openly referred to him as an “old” during a television interview. Furthermore, Suozzi expressed hesitation about having Biden campaign alongside him in this race, suggesting that it might not be beneficial.
“If I were advising him,” stated Reeher, referring to the president, “I would caution him about this race, as there are several factors at play that may not work in his favor.”
