PARIS — The fragile state of France’s minority government faces a critical challenge as opposition lawmakers gear up for a potential no-confidence vote. In a desperate bid to retain their positions, members of the Cabinet expressed concerns about potential chaos both domestically and internationally if the government is ousted.
Prime Minister Michel Barnier, a conservative aligned with President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition, acknowledged the precarious situation surrounding an important budget vote in a recent television interview. The proposed budget for the upcoming year is required to be approved by December 21.
Barnier warned that a successful no-confidence vote, fueled by what he described as a coalition between left-wing parties and the far-right, could lead to significant upheaval in the financial markets. He emphasized the importance of stability, stating, “there will be a big storm and very serious turbulence.”
Jean-Noël Barrot, the Foreign Minister, echoed these dire predictions during a discussion on news channel CNews. He cautioned, “Given the current global unrest, with potential wars on our doorstep and fierce competition from superpowers like the U.S. and China, anyone deciding to destabilize Barnier’s administration and deny France a budget will be accountable for the ensuing chaos.”
Barrot’s remarks followed France’s involvement in mediating a ceasefire agreement that halted hostilities between Israel and Lebanon’s Hezbollah, showcasing the nation’s diplomatic efforts amidst ongoing international strife.
The outcome of the June-July parliamentary elections left France’s National Assembly fragmented, with three major factions: a left-wing coalition named the New Popular Front, Macron’s centrist allies, and the far-right National Rally, none holding a clear majority. Until recently, Barnier relied on support from the far-right to maintain his government.
However, Marine Le Pen, leader of the National Rally, has recently threatened to initiate a no-confidence motion unless the government makes significant adjustments to the proposed budget. She is calling for a freeze on electricity taxes and an increase in state pensions starting January.
In response, Barnier proposed a compromise, agreeing not to raise electricity taxes. France faces pressure from the European Union to address its substantial debt, prompting Barnier’s administration to aim for a reduction of the deficit from the current estimated 6% of Gross Domestic Product to 5% in the upcoming year, through a 60-billion euro ($66 billion) budget cut.
Finance Minister Antoine Armand contended that simply opposing the government does not justify driving the nation into financial uncertainty. He illustrated the dangers of failing to establish a coherent budget by stating, “There’s a risk of stalling like a plane that is at altitude and may ultimately lose control.”
Yaël Braun-Pivet, the Speaker of the National Assembly, assured the public that according to the French Constitution, the country would not experience a government shutdown similar to those in the United States, which could disrupt numerous services and affect federal employees.
Furthermore, some opposition members ready to challenge the government claimed that a transitional government could enact a special tax law by January 1. This government could also use decrees to maintain funding for civil servants and essential state expenses like pensions and medical reimbursements.
In a column for Le Figaro, Le Pen asserted that even if the no-confidence vote succeeds, taxes would continue to be collected, and essential services would remain funded. She criticized the government for disregarding her party’s proposals, questioning, “If we reject this budget, are we truly the supposed ‘architects of chaos’?”
Mathilde Panot, the leader of the far-left France Unbowed movement, criticized the government’s apocalyptic warnings about potential consequences of a no-confidence vote. She stated that the resources needed for state continuity are already available and called for the appointment of a left-wing Cabinet instead, a move that Macron previously dismissed.
The upcoming Monday will serve as another hurdle for Barnier’s government, as the National Assembly prepares to vote on a contentious social security budget.