BEIRUT — On Wednesday, a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, the Lebanese militant group, seemed to be holding as many residents loaded their cars with possessions and drove back towards the southern region of Lebanon. This return came despite advisories from both Israeli and Lebanese military officials urging caution and encouraging people to stay away from specific areas.
If this ceasefire continues, it would mark the end of nearly 14 months of conflict between Israel and Hezbollah, a situation that escalated into full-scale confrontations in mid-September and raised concerns about a wider conflict possibly involving Hezbollah’s ally, Iran. This pause in fighting could provide relief for approximately 1.2 million Lebanese who have been displaced due to the tumult and for the tens of thousands of Israelis who left their homes near the Lebanese border.
Late Tuesday, a truce negotiated by the United States and France received Israel’s backing, initiating a two-month cessation of hostilities. The agreement mandates Hezbollah to cease its militant activities in southern Lebanon, while Israeli forces are expected to withdraw to their side of the border. A presence of thousands of additional Lebanese troops and U.N. peacekeepers will be established in the area, with a monitoring body led by the United States overseeing compliance.
Israel has reaffirmed its right to respond militarily if Hezbollah breaches the terms of the ceasefire. However, the ceasefire does not extend to the ongoing conflict in Gaza, where Israeli forces are engaged with Hamas following the group’s incursion into southern Israel in October 2023. President Joe Biden announced plans to intensify efforts for a resolution to that crisis in the days ahead.
Before the ceasefire took effect, airstrikes by Israel rocked Beirut, while Hezbollah fired rockets that activated warning sirens in northern Israel. Following the ceasefire’s commencement early Wednesday, a sense of calm appeared to return, resulting in a surge of Lebanese citizens beginning their journey home.
Israeli military spokesperson Avichay Adraee cautioned those returning not to go back to their southern villages, while the Lebanese military recommended avoiding areas still affected by Israeli troop presence until there is a full withdrawal. Despite these warnings, social media displayed videos of reluctant returnees defying instructions, particularly in villages near Tyre, a coastal city.
On the highway leading from Beirut to southern Lebanon, vehicles jammed as large numbers of residents headed south, some transporting essential belongings and mattresses strapped to their cars. Traffic congestion was notably heavy at the northern approach to Sidon.
Residents returning to their homes expect to find extensive destruction, as the Israeli military stated it targeted locations housing significant weapons caches perceived as a threat for future attacks against northern Israel. Reports indicate over 3,760 lives have been lost due to Israeli strikes in Lebanon over the past 13 months, with many casualties being civilians.
Hezbollah emerged from the conflict significantly weakened, with its previous image as a resilient adversary to Israel diminished. Nevertheless, the group demonstrated considerable resistance during the conflict, successfully impeding Israeli ground movements while consistently launching numerous rockets and aerial attacks.
“This is a moment of victory, pride, and honor for us, the Shia community, and for all of Lebanon,” said Hussein Sweidan, a Tyre resident who characterized the ceasefire as a triumph for Hezbollah. Celebratory gunfire could be heard in Tyre’s central areas as returning residents honked their horns in approval.
In contrast, many in Israel reacted with caution, feeling the ceasefire agreement might fall short of adequately addressing the threat posed by Hezbollah and failing to resolve the ongoing situation in Gaza, particularly concerning hostages held by Hamas. Eliyahu Maman, a resident displaced from the northern city of Kiryat Shmona, expressed concerns for safety, indicating reluctance to return home due to Hezbollah’s proximity.
The violence in the region has claimed over 70 lives in Israel, including significant civilian casualties as well as numerous Israeli soldiers involved in combat operations. The potential for a meaningful return of displaced individuals to their communities, many of which have suffered considerable damage from rocket fire, might take several months.
Nevertheless, Israel can point to major strategic achievements in the conflict such as the elimination of Hezbollah’s leadership and the crippling of its military capabilities. A highly intricate assault believed to involve hacking communications demonstrates a notable level of infiltration into the group’s ranks.
While fears of extensive, long-range rocket attacks from Hezbollah were prevalent, such scenarios never fully materialized, either due to preemptive Israeli strikes or an apparent strategic reserve held by the militant group. Hezbollah also refrained from executing any ground incursions across the border despite indications that they had prepared considerable resources for such operations.