KYIV, Ukraine — An advanced manufacturing facility in central Russia has developed a new and lethal strategy aimed at attacking Ukraine: a limited number of highly destructive thermobaric drones accompanied by large swarms of inexpensive foam decoys.
This operation, referred to by Russia as Operation False Target, is designed to compel Ukraine to use valuable resources to protect lives and maintain essential infrastructure. This includes the deployment of costly air defense munitions, as revealed by sources familiar with Russian military production and a Ukrainian electronics specialist who tracks these drones from a modified vehicle.
The challenge arises from the inability of radar, sharpshooters, or even seasoned electronics experts to differentiate between which drones are armed and which are mere decoys.
**A Dangerous Combination**
According to sources, unarmed decoys now account for over half of the drones being launched at Ukraine. This figure can reach as high as 75% of the newer drones emerging from a factory located in Russia’s Alabuga Special Economic Zone. The same facility manufactures a highly lethal version of the Shahed unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV), equipped with thermobaric warheads.
During the first weekend of November, the Kyiv region was under air alert for 20 hours, amid the ominous drone sounds and the explosive noise of air defenses alongside gunfire. In October, Moscow launched at least 1,889 drones—marking an 80% increase compared to August, based on thorough tracking analyses.
On a recent Saturday, Russia initiated an offensive by launching 145 drones across Ukraine, shortly after the re-election of Donald Trump raised uncertainties regarding U.S. support for Ukraine. Since the summer, many drones have either crashed, been shot down, or disrupted by electronic warfare tactics. Data reveals that less than 6% successfully engage a distinguishable target, but the overwhelming volume of the attacks allows a few to get through, leading to lethal outcomes.
**Drones from the Lab**
The Alabuga industrial complex in Tatarstan, located about 1,000 kilometers (600 miles) east of Moscow, has evolved into a hub for drone manufacturing. It was established in 2006 to foster business and attract investment but shifted towards military production following the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, expanding its facilities based on satellite imagery analysis.
While previously promoting itself as an innovation center through social media, the current role of the Alabuga factory has become solely focused on the mass production of drones for Russia’s Ministry of Defense. This comes amid criticism regarding the recruitment of various workers, particularly in relation to the treatment of African women reportedly misled about their employment conditions.
In 2022, Russia and Iran formalized a $1.7 billion agreement regarding the supply of Shahed drones following the onset of the conflict in Ukraine, with combat operations commencing soon after. Alabuga has since started producing these UAVs.
Among the most formidable drone adaptations emerging from the facility is the thermobaric variant, which utilizes vacuum bombs. The development of unarmed drone decoys in Alabuga began in late 2022, and production commenced earlier in the year, with approximately 40 decoys and about 10 armed drones produced daily.
**The Vacuum Bomb’s Impact**
From a tactical standpoint, thermobaric weapons are particularly effective against heavily fortified structures or deep underground targets. They generate a violent vortex of intense heat and pressure that can breach solid barriers, while simultaneously eliminating oxygen in the affected areas.
These thermobaric drones are especially devastating when they strike buildings, as they often carry ball bearings intended to maximize damage beyond the initial blast radius. Serhii Beskrestnov, a Ukrainian electronics expert known for tracking and countering drones, stated that the use of thermobarics began last summer, making up approximately 3% to 5% of the total drone attacks.
The psychological and physical harm caused by these weapons is notorious. Casualties near the explosion can suffer severe injuries, including lung collapse, eye damage, and brain trauma, according to experts in humanitarian law.
For Russia, the advantages of deploying such drones are substantial. An unarmed decoy is significantly cheaper than the estimated $50,000 price tag of an armed Shahed drone, and costs a fraction of even the least expensive air defense missile. A single decoy equipped with a live-feed camera can pinpoint the location of Ukrainian air defenses and relay critical intelligence back to Russia. This tactic continues to instill a sense of fear and demoralization among Ukrainian defenders.