PHOENIX — In Arizona, Democratic Representative Ruben Gallego, a veteran of the Iraq War, is set to face off against well-known former television news anchor Kari Lake in the upcoming election for U.S. Senate. This contest is particularly significant as it is expected to have a substantial impact on the balance of power in the Senate. The election is seen as a crucial measure of the anti-Trump coalition that has become increasingly influential in the state, which traditionally leaned Republican until 2016. Since that pivotal year, Arizona voters have consistently rejected Trump and his endorsed candidates in statewide elections.
The outcome of the Senate race will determine who replaces Kyrsten Sinema, the Democratic senator who won in 2018 and whose success set a precedent for Democratic candidates in Arizona. Sinema, who left the Democratic Party two years ago amid tensions with its progressive wing, initially contemplated running for a second term as an independent but ultimately chose not to pursue it after realizing the path to victory was not favorable.
Throughout the campaign, Gallego has maintained a notable lead in fundraising efforts and has actively attacked Lake’s support for a historical state law prohibiting most abortions. In response, Lake took a more centrist stance on the issue, which annoyed some conservative supporters as she voiced opposition to a federal abortion ban. Gallego labeled Lake as someone willing to mislead in her pursuit of power.
While Gallego highlighted his progressive voting background in Congress, he also emphasized his personal journey and military experience as he sought to present himself as a pragmatic moderate. Born to immigrants from Mexico and Colombia, Gallego was raised in Chicago under the care of a single mother and went on to attend Harvard University. He served in the Marine Corps Reserve and was deployed in Iraq in 2005, where he faced the devastating loss of a close friend. If successful in this election, he would mark a historic milestone as the first Latino U.S. senator from Arizona.
Kari Lake rose to prominence within the populist right during her 2022 campaign for governor of Arizona. Despite her defeat, she has never acknowledged losing the race, instead referring to herself as the “lawful governor” in her recent book and continuing to pursue legal actions aiming to overturn the results. This insistence on the false narrative of a stolen election has earned her the loyalty of Donald Trump, who considered her as a possible vice presidential candidate. However, this stance has also created challenges for her with moderate Republicans, particularly after she made disparaging remarks about the late Senator John McCain and former Governor Doug Ducey during her campaign.
In a bid to appeal to a broader voter base, Lake attempted to shift her messaging on contentious issues such as electoral fraud and abortion but faced difficulties in maintaining a consistent stance. Instead, she concentrated her efforts on border security, a critical issue in a state that shares a border with Mexico and has witnessed a dramatic rise in illegal crossings under the Biden administration. Lake has vowed to enforce strict immigration controls and has accused Gallego of being a proponent of “open borders.” Additionally, she sought to question his personal life by referencing his divorce from Kate Gallego shortly before she gave birth; however, his ex-wife, who currently serves as the mayor of Phoenix, has endorsed him and campaigned alongside him.
As Lake concluded her campaign, she focused on appealing to Trump supporters who remained skeptical of her candidacy. Simultaneously, Arizona is also witnessing fiercely contested races for two U.S. House seats, where Republicans David Schweikert and Juan Ciscomani are vying for reelection in districts that leaned toward Biden during the 2020 election.
Schweikert, in his seventh term in the House, faces a challenge from Democratic former lawmaker Amish Shah in Arizona’s 1st District, which encompasses parts of north Phoenix and adjacent affluent areas. Although the Republicans hold a registration advantage, shifts among educated suburban voters away from Trump have led to a central trend in the district, resulting in some voters either supporting Democrats or leaving their ballots blank. The redistricting process before the 2022 midterms has further accelerated this shift.
In a separate race, Ciscomani, who is pursuing a second term, will face Democrat Kirsten Engel again after winning against her by a narrow margin in 2022. His district stretches along the Arizona-Mexico border and extends to the New Mexico state line. Ciscomani, who immigrated from Mexico as a child and served as an aide to Ducey, positions border security as a top priority while distancing himself from Trump’s more severe anti-immigration rhetoric. Engel, a law professor and former state official, has criticized Ciscomani for rejecting a bipartisan border reform bill that aimed to overhaul the asylum system and provide new authority for the president to manage overwhelming asylum claims.
Currently, Arizona’s congressional delegation consists of six Republicans and three Democrats, highlighting the competitive and shifting political landscape in the state.