Home Politics Live Elections A few key House elections in New York could determine Congress’s leadership.

A few key House elections in New York could determine Congress’s leadership.

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A few key House elections in New York could determine Congress’s leadership.

ALBANY, N.Y. — On Tuesday, New Yorkers could significantly influence the balance of power in the U.S. House of Representatives. Republicans are working hard to maintain suburban districts they captured two years ago, leveraging voter concerns regarding crime. Meanwhile, Democrats are striving to reclaim these seats, warning voters about the potential impact of a conservative Congress on abortion rights.

Democrats are eyeing several Republican incumbents across Long Island, the Hudson River Valley, and a newly restructured district in central New York, which they believe could tilt in their favor. However, Republicans may retain these seats and even have a shot at unseating a couple of incumbent Democrats.

Many of the key races are occurring in regions that previously supported President Joe Biden over Donald Trump in the 2020 election but shifted to Republican representation in the subsequent Congress. These competitive districts illustrate New York’s intricate political landscape, often seen as a Democratic bastion, yet home to prominent Republicans like Congresswoman Elise Stefanik, who chairs the House Republican Conference. All these individuals were expected to win their respective races convincingly on Tuesday.

In Long Island, Republican Congressman Anthony D’Esposito faces a challenging rematch against Democrat Laura Gillen, a former town supervisor whom he defeated in 2022. Gillen may benefit from Vice President Kamala Harris’s presence on the ballot this time around. In central New York, Republican Brandon Williams is defending his seat against Democratic State Senator John Mannion. Williams previously secured his seat by a slim margin of about 2,600 votes, and redistricting has removed rural areas from his constituency where he had strong support.

Moreover, a trio of districts in the Hudson Valley sees three incumbents—two freshman Republicans and one Democrat—struggling to hold onto seats won by narrow victories in the last election cycle.

Both parties aim to appeal to moderate suburban voters, framing their opponents as extreme. In 2022, Republicans successfully tapped into concerns about lawlessness related to the pandemic. Although crime rates have since fallen, Republicans continue to emphasize the issue, also spotlighting their stance on immigration to resonate with suburban anxieties about the influx of migrants.

Democrats, on their part, have focused on addressing voter fears regarding crime and immigration while highlighting the abortion issue, despite previous efforts yielding limited success in a state where abortion rights have not been widely perceived as under threat.

Republican footholds in Long Island were weakened last year following the expulsion of former Congressman George Santos, who faced scrutiny for fabricating details about his background and defrauding campaign donors. Democrat Tom Suozzi emerged victorious in the special election to fill Santos’s seat and is now contesting his position against Republican Mike LiPetri, a former state lawmaker.

Additionally, Democrats have recruited former CNN anchor John Avlon to challenge Republican Nick LaLota for a second term in another Long Island district.

In the suburban regions north of New York City, Republican Congressman Mike Lawler is facing off against Democrat Mondaire Jones, who previously represented part of the district before redistricting altered its boundaries. Jones has accused Lawler of misrepresenting himself as a moderate while claiming he votes in alignment with extreme Republican ideologies. Conversely, Lawler contends that Jones is the one disguising his true liberal stance.

In a pre-election interview, Lawler noted, “People want reasonableness. They want folks who are willing to work across the aisle to get things done.” The race gained further notoriety when photos emerged of Lawler donning blackface at a Halloween party in 2006, which he defended as an homage to Michael Jackson.

In the Hudson Valley, Democratic Congressman Pat Ryan is engaged in a competitive race against Republican Alison Esposito, a former NYPD officer focusing her campaign on law enforcement. Should she win, Esposito would become the first openly gay Republican woman to serve in Congress. Further north, Republican Marc Molinaro is trying to fend off Democrat Josh Riley in a rematch from 2022. This district crosses from New York’s Massachusetts border, through the Catskills, to the Finger Lakes.

The election serves as a replay of their previous contest, where Molinaro narrowly emerged victorious over Riley. Notably, Molinaro appears to be leaning even more rightward, especially when he recently promoted a misleading social media post about Haitian immigrants in Ohio.

In an unusual twist, the only New York congressional race ripe for an open seat involves Democrat George Latimer, who is strongly favored against Republican Dr. Miriam Levitt Flisser. Latimer triumphed in a June primary against U.S. Representative Jamaal Bowman, marking the first loss for one of the prominent progressive members of the “Squad.”