BOZEMAN, Mont. — Following nearly two decades of efforts to unseat Montana Democratic U.S. Senator Jon Tester, Republicans believe they are on the cusp of victory in what is becoming a highly contentious campaign that is breaking spending records across the state.

Montana voters are feeling overwhelmed by the barrage of negative advertisements inundating their televisions, radios, and mailboxes.

Tester, who narrowly won his first term by just 3,500 votes in 2006, has managed to secure three terms despite significant shifts in the political landscape of the Northern Plains. This time, he faces a formidable opponent in Republican Tim Sheehy, a former U.S. Navy SEAL and affluent aerospace manager who has the backing of former President Donald Trump.
At a rally held in Bozeman for Tester over the weekend—where Sheehy had previously hosted a Trump rally that attracted a large turnout—the incumbent attracted only a few dozen supporters.

Tester voter Josh Olsen expressed concern that as the population in Montana grows, the electorate is becoming increasingly polarized, making it harder for the grain farmer from the small town of Big Sandy to appeal to diverse voters. “I’m really worried,” he stated. “There’s a lot of partisans moving here… If they are Republicans, they are definitely voting for Sheehy.”
At age 68, Tester has been in office as the last remaining Democratic senator in a six-state region stretching from Nebraska to Canada, after surviving years of Republican efforts to erode his support, especially in rural regions.
Montana’s vast, sparsely populated landscape consists of only about a quarter of its residents living in urban centers with populations exceeding 50,000. Political analyst Jeremy Johnson noted that Republicans have gained traction in many rural areas, presenting significant challenges for Democrats.
Currently, Republicans are facing a two-seat deficit in the Senate. Meanwhile, Democrats aim to retain their majority and appear ready to outspend Republicans by approximately $50 million in this Senate race. Total spending is anticipated to surpass $315 million, equating to about $487 for each of the state’s 648,000 registered voters, setting a record for congressional contests when measured per voter.
This financial frenzy supports ad campaigns aimed at discrediting opponents. One Sheehy ad highlights alleged corruption in Washington while targeting Tester, labelling him “one of the worst offenders.” Conversely, Tester’s campaign ads brand Sheehy as a “fake cowboy” and accuse him of fabricating details about a bullet wound he sustained.
Former Montana Governor Marc Racicot criticized the overwhelming influx of money into the state, calling it “absolutely obscene.” This deluge of funds comes in the aftermath of a Supreme Court ruling more than a decade ago that eliminated limits on political spending by corporations and unions.
“The constant negativity is unrelenting,” Racicot lamented. “You can’t even watch TV without being bombarded by anger and sloganeering due to the sheer volume of cash in these campaigns. It’s disgraceful.”
Should Sheehy prevail, a Republican-controlled Senate could hinder Democratic initiatives if Vice President Kamala Harris retains the presidency. Conversely, a Tester win could bolster Democratic efforts to counter a potential Trump administration.
Much of the campaign funding originates from politically active groups and wealthy donors. The Campaign Legal Center, a non-partisan organization, has filed lawsuits citing transparency violations against a pro-Tester group called Last Best Place PAC, which has been known for launching fierce attacks against Sheehy.
Additionally, there are claims that deceptive practices were used to disguise more than $2.5 million in contributions to various political committees, including those supporting Sheehy. The resolution of these allegations is not expected until after the election.
Trump’s influence looms large as he previously won Montana by large margins in both 2016 and 2020. The upcoming election marks the first instance in which Tester and Trump will both appear on the ballot.
Sheehy’s campaign rhetoric closely aligns with that of Trump and the broader Republican agenda, targeting issues such as immigration and inflation, while also addressing social topics like policies regarding transgender athletes.
On the other hand, Tester’s campaign has capitalized on themes surrounding abortion and women’s healthcare, hoping to tap into a backlash following the Supreme Court’s 2022 reversal of Roe v. Wade, a backlash that was emblematic even in traditionally red states.
In an effort to create a distance from national Democratic figures, Tester has tried to appeal to voters by emphasizing his own priorities. His substantial fundraising efforts outstrip Sheehy’s by more than three-to-one, largely powered by an influx of smaller donations from out-of-state backers alarmed by the competitive nature of the race.
“While Tester has mobilized more funding, financial backing does not equate to votes,” stated Sheehy’s team. “Montana residents are focused on practical issues like a secure border, safe communities, affordable gas, and straightforward social norms.”
Sheehy, who moved to Montana a decade ago and likens himself to early pioneers, has positioned Tester’s long tenure in the Senate as detrimental.
Republicans accuse Tester of receiving campaign donations from industries that have benefitted from his legislative support. Previous controversies surrounded Tester, including contributions linked to bank leaders following a regulatory repeal and officials from Lockheed Martin tied to a defense bill he supported. However, there has been no evidence of any misconduct or indications that donations swayed his legislative decisions.
This election cycle, Tester emerged as the top recipient of lobbyist contributions in Congress, accumulating about $500,000 while raising an impressive total of $88 million historically. When confronted about his donors and lobbyist engagement, Tester remarked that he was focused on advancing policies beneficial to Montana.
Sheehy also has substantial financial backing from national organizations, receiving $109,000 from lobbyists, despite his own history of lobbying government officials to promote business prospects for his aerial firefighting company.
With no prior experience in elected office, Sheehy has drawn criticism for his evasiveness during interviews and for making controversial observations about Native Americans. Furthermore, he faced scrutiny regarding the legitimacy of a bullet wound he claims resulted from combat in Afghanistan.
In a revelation, a Glacier National Park ranger who interacted with Sheehy in 2015 appeared to contradict his claims about the wound, indicating it was self-inflicted. Subsequently, the ranger participated in a pro-Tester PAC advertisement, conflicting with earlier statements claiming no ties to Democratic efforts.
Republican officials dismissed the ranger’s credibility, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee’s Mike Berg labeling him a liar and a partisan. Tester, for his part, challenged Sheehy to disclose his medical records, stating that “stolen valor” remains a significant concern in these discussions.