A new Wall Street Journal poll has revealed that former President Donald Trump leads Democratic candidate Kamala Harris 47% to 45% in a tight race, with a margin of error of ±2.5 percentage points. The poll, conducted from October 19-22, surveyed 1,500 registered voters, highlighting a highly competitive race less than two weeks before Election Day.
Early voting surges across battleground states
As of Wednesday, around 25 million Americans have already cast their votes through early voting or mail-in ballots, with record turnout in key battlegrounds like Georgia and North Carolina. Early voting has reached unprecedented levels, with Georgia’s Secretary of State reporting record turnout on the first day of early voting. Both candidates are campaigning aggressively in these crucial states.
Harris promises a new direction, while Trump focuses on Christian voters
In a recent town hall, Harris assured voters her presidency would offer a different direction from the Biden administration, addressing concerns that Biden’s policies could hinder her campaign. She also criticized Trump as a danger to America’s safety and promised to tackle key issues like high grocery prices and ending foreign conflicts.
Trump, in contrast, has been rallying his base, particularly evangelical Christian voters, with back-to-back appearances in Georgia, where he has teamed up with figures like Tucker Carlson and Jason Aldean. He continues to emphasize record-breaking voter turnout while urging early voting, a practice he had previously criticized.
Both candidates make final pushes in battleground states
With just 12 days left, Trump and Harris are focusing heavily on Pennsylvania and Georgia, which will likely decide the outcome of the election. Harris participated in a CNN town hall to sway undecided voters, while Trump held rallies with high-profile supporters in Georgia, including Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Democrats’ Hopes for a Popular Vote Lead Falter
Traditionally, Democrats have enjoyed a popular vote advantage, even in elections lost via the Electoral College. Many were looking to Harris to build a commanding national lead, especially as a signal of strength in key swing states like Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. However, the polling tie has cast doubts, with just days remaining.
Three Tumultuous Months Leave Race Unchanged
The poll reflects a tied race despite a chaotic three-month period filled with a high-stakes debate, two assassination attempts on Trump, and nonstop rallies and ad campaigns. Even with hundreds of millions of dollars poured into ads and efforts to sway battleground states, both candidates appear locked in place.
Harris’s Support Slips Since October Polling Lead
Harris, who held a slim lead of 49 to 46 percent in early October, has seen her position slightly decline among likely voters in recent weeks, within the poll’s margin of error. The Times’s national polling average also indicates a tightening trend, suggesting the race has become even closer in the final stretch.
Battleground States Hold the Key
While the national poll highlights a deadlock, the election will ultimately be decided in seven crucial states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Polls in these battlegrounds show similarly close margins, underscoring just how tight this race remains as both campaigns make their final pushes.
