WASHINGTON — Senior intelligence officials warned on Tuesday that both Russia and Iran may attempt to instigate violent protests in the United States following the upcoming election. This caution stems from two recent instances where foreign intelligence agencies sought to create discord in relation to the electoral process.
According to officials from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, both nations could potentially support violent protests by either covertly organizing these events themselves or promoting participation in protests organized by domestic groups. The ultimate objective, the officials noted, would be to exacerbate divisions within the country, raise doubts about the election results, and complicate the transfer of presidential power.
In a declassified intelligence memo released to the public, it was revealed that in January, Russian military intelligence attempted to recruit an American citizen to aid in organizing U.S. protests. The memo indicated that the American was “probably unwitting” and unaware he was interacting with Russian operatives.
The United States has also accused the Iranian government of secretly backing protests against American support for Israel during the ongoing conflict in Gaza. The memo disclosed that individuals affiliated with Iran expressed willingness to cover travel expenses for protests occurring this year in Washington, D.C.
Officials highlighted that the potential for foreign adversaries to promote political violence post-election is heightened this year, as both Russia and Iran now possess a better grasp of the intricate process the U.S. follows to certify election results. The events of January 6, 2021, when Trump supporters launched an attack on the Capitol, underscored how easily false claims regarding election outcomes can lead to real-world violence.
The timeframe between Election Day and the inauguration carries unique risks, as foreign adversaries and domestic extremists may attempt to undermine the election certification process by capitalizing on misleading narratives or innocent irregularities. Concerns over safety have already prompted election workers in various regions to install bulletproof glass and incorporate panic buttons due to fears of election-related incidents.
Rising fears of political violence have emerged amidst an atmosphere of deepening polarization and increasing mistrust, a trend that adversaries are working to exploit through online disinformation and propaganda efforts. In addition to influencing the election outcome, officials assert that Russia, Iran, and China aim to fracture American unity by disseminating false narratives about elections, voting, and contentious issues such as immigration, the economy, and responses to recent natural disasters.
For Russia, the objective of eroding support for Ukraine translates to favoring former President Donald Trump, who has openly praised Russian President Vladimir Putin and criticized NATO. Meanwhile, Iran has aimed to sabotage Trump’s campaign through disinformation and cyber intrusions into campaign emails. Tensions escalated following Trump’s withdrawal from the nuclear deal with Iran, the reintroduction of sanctions, and the targeted killing of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, prompting Iran’s leadership to declare intentions of vengeance.
An official from the Office of the Director of National Intelligence indicated that Russia is likely to incite protests in the U.S. irrespective of the election victor. Nevertheless, officials anticipate a more aggressive response from Russia if Kamala Harris were to defeat Trump in the presidential race.
While China has engaged in disinformation campaigns designed to mislead and confuse the American public, intelligence officials currently lack evidence suggesting that Beijing will actively encourage violent protests. Although China has attempted to interfere in down-ballot congressional races and state elections, both U.S. intelligence and private analysts agree that Beijing does not exhibit a significant bias in the presidential election.
Officials have raised alarms over the possibility that groups aiming to interfere with the election might leverage threats of violence at polling locations to deter certain voter demographics. A similar tactic was reported in 2020, where Iranian hackers impersonated members of the far-right Proud Boys, sending threatening emails to Democratic voters as a means of voter suppression.
In light of growing concerns regarding election violence, voting advocacy and civil rights organizations have initiated public outreach efforts designed to foster resilience against disinformation and to emphasize the common ground that exists among Americans, despite the present political climate.
“Voters should understand that they alone will determine the outcome of the election in 2024 — not a political party, extremist factions, or purveyors of disinformation,” stated Maya Wiley, president and CEO of the Leadership Conference for Civil and Human Rights, which has implemented its initiatives to combat election misinformation and the attendant political violence. “Democracy requires passionate persistence.”
In response to these allegations, representatives from Russia, China, and Iran have denied any intent to meddle in U.S. elections. On Tuesday, a representative from Iran’s U.N. mission referenced previous statements denying engagement in American political affairs. A spokesperson for China’s Washington Embassy described claims regarding Chinese disinformation as “filled with malicious speculations against China.” Attempts to reach Russia’s embassy for comment went unanswered.