Voters in Arizona will face an abundance of competitive races during the upcoming general election set for November 5, significantly influencing the balance of power at various levels, including the White House, the U.S. Senate, the House of Representatives, and both chambers of the state Legislature.
Four years following President Joe Biden’s narrow victory, which made him only the second Democratic presidential candidate to win Arizona in nearly seven decades, the state remains a crucial battleground. Alongside Arizona, three other Sun Belt states are drawing significant attention from both presidential campaigns as they prepare for the final push to Election Day.
In a closely contested race for the state’s 16 electoral votes, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris competes against Republican former President Donald Trump. Both candidates, along with their running mates, have made several campaign appearances in Arizona since clinching their party nominations this past summer.
Among other key contests are the race for U.S. Senate, which features Democrat Ruben Gallego and Republican Kari Lake vying for the seat of outgoing independent U.S. Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Additionally, two Republican-held U.S. House districts in the Phoenix and Tucson areas, both of which supported Biden in the 2020 election, are also considered tight contests.
Arizona Democrats are optimistic about potentially gaining control of the state Senate for the first time since 1992 and the state House for the first time since 1966, marking a significant moment should they regain governorship alongside both Legislative chambers.
Voters will also address prominent statewide ballot measures regarding abortion, immigration, and two contrasting propositions related to the use of partisan primaries in state elections. According to the state constitution, if both conflicting measures pass, the one with higher support will become law, though the matter is expected to be litigated.
Here’s a breakdown of what to anticipate during the upcoming election in Arizona:
Election Day: November 5.
Poll closing time: 9 p.m. ET. Arizona will release voting results only after all precincts have reported or one hour post the closure of polls—usually around 10 p.m. ET.
Presidential Electoral Votes: 11 awarded to the statewide victor.
Key Races and Candidates:
– President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).
– U.S. Senate: Ruben Gallego (D) vs. Kari Lake (R) and one other.
– 1st Congressional District: Amish Shah (D) vs. David Schweikert (R).
– 6th Congressional District: Kirsten Engel (D) vs. Juan Ciscomani (R) and one other.
– Ballot measures: Proposition 133 (requires partisan primaries), Proposition 139 (right to abortion), Proposition 140 (eliminates partisan primaries), Proposition 314 (criminal penalties for illegal immigration).
Additionally, other races of interest include those for the state Senate, state House, and Corporation Commissioner.
Decision Notes:
In Arizona, ballots collected and processed before Election Day are the first to be reported following poll closure. These early ballots have traditionally leaned Democratic since early and mail voting gained political significance in the 2020 election cycle. During the 2022 U.S. Senate contest, Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly began with an approximately 20-point advantage over Republican Blake Masters, but this margin diminished to roughly 5 points by the final tally.
Mail-in ballots delivered on Election Day require a more extended timeframe for tabulation, as election officials start processing them only after polls close. In Maricopa County, which holds a majority of the state’s population, around 20% of the total votes cast in the 2022 election were early mail ballots dropped off on Election Day.
Maricopa County significantly impacts statewide elections, representing about 62% of the vote in the 2020 presidential election, followed by Pima County at approximately 15%. Over the last dozen years, the Democratic party has consistently emerged victorious in four counties, regardless of the election’s outcome: Apache, Coconino, Pima, and Santa Cruz. In every instance, the candidate who won Maricopa County secured statewide victory.
The reporting of election results by associated agencies will only occur when it is clear there is no way for trailing candidates to close the gap. If the race remains undecided, news will continue to be reported regarding candidates’ concessions or victory declarations. In Arizona, recounts are automatic whenever the vote margin is 0.5% or less. A leading candidate may potentially be declared the winner in a recount-eligible race if the margin is deemed insurmountable.
Reflecting on past presidential election outcomes, in 2020, Biden secured 49.4% of the vote while Trump followed closely at 49.1%.
As of July 30, 2024, Arizona had 4,109,270 registered voters, with approximately 29% identifying as Democrats, 35% as Republicans, and 36% as those affiliated with other parties. Approximately 71% of registered voters participated in the 2020 presidential election.
Looking at pre-Election Day voting, around 89% of total votes were cast before Election Day in 2020, while this figure dropped to around 82% in 2022.
The voting count process revealed that the first set of votes was reported by 10:02 p.m. ET on November 3, 2020, with about 72% of the total votes accounted for by midnight ET on the same evening.