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AP Insights: Anticipations for Election Day in Pennsylvania

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AP Insights: Anticipations for Election Day in Pennsylvania

WASHINGTON — Voters in Pennsylvania are set to play a crucial role in the upcoming general election scheduled for November 5, as the outcomes could significantly influence control over the White House, both chambers of Congress, and the state Legislature.

The state, boasting 19 electoral votes, stands as the most prominent battleground among swing states, making it a vital focus for both presidential campaigns. Since they secured their party nominations, both Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris and Republican former President Donald Trump have made multiple visits to Pennsylvania, including participating in their only debate in Philadelphia this past September.

Pennsylvania previously joined the ranks of traditional Democratic strongholds known as the “blue wall” before supporting Trump in the 2016 election. This shift ended nearly three decades of Democratic presidential votes. In the subsequent 2020 election, Democrat Joe Biden successfully reclaimed Pennsylvania for his party, winning by a narrow margin of about 80,000 votes amid a turnout of over 6.9 million. In 2024, the state’s electoral votes remain a key target for both political parties.

In the contest for the U.S. Senate, incumbent Democrat Bob Casey is vying for a fourth term against Republican Dave McCormick. Casey, who hails from a prominent political family, is facing one of the most challenging races of his career thus far. This seat is pivotal for the Democrats’ efforts to maintain their slim majority in the Senate. McCormick, a combat veteran and former hedge fund executive, previously sought the GOP nomination for another Senate seat in 2022 but lost out to Mehmet Oz, who ultimately lost to Democrat John Fetterman.

Several competitive races are also on the ballot that could impact control of the U.S. House of Representatives. In the 7th Congressional District, incumbent Democratic Rep. Susan Wild aims to secure a fourth term while facing Republican Ryan Mackenzie. Meanwhile, Democratic Rep. Matt Cartwright seeks a seventh term against Republican Robert Bresnahan in the neighboring 8th Congressional District, where vote preferences have varied significantly in past elections.

As for the control of Pennsylvania’s state Legislature, Democrats are defending the slim majority they attained in 2022, after 12 years of Republican dominance. This year, all 203 state House seats and half of the 50 state Senate seats are up for grabs, with Republicans currently holding the Senate majority.

Key details for the upcoming election include:

Election Day: November 5.

Poll Closing Time: 8 p.m. ET.

Presidential Electoral Votes: 19 awarded to the statewide winner.

Notable Races:

  • President: Harris (D) vs. Trump (R) vs. Chase Oliver (Libertarian) vs. Jill Stein (Green).
  • U.S. Senate: Casey (D) vs. McCormick (R) and others.
  • 7th Congressional District: Wild (D) vs. Mackenzie (R).
  • 8th Congressional District: Cartwright (D) vs. Bresnahan (R).

Moreover, several additional races are generating interest, including contests for the U.S. House, Attorney General, Auditor General, Treasurer, as well as seats in the state Senate and House.

Vote counting in Pennsylvania can be relatively slow due to specific regulations. Election officials are prohibited from beginning to process mail-in ballots until 7 a.m. ET on Election Day, with actual counting commencing only after the polls close. Given that mail ballots represented about a quarter of the total vote during the 2022 midterm elections, delays in counting can influence the timing of election results, particularly in close races.

The first results released after polling ends are typically from mail-in ballots, followed by a combination of mail and in-person votes as the night progresses. As counting continues into the day after Election Day, mail ballots are anticipated to dominate the reporting.

Historically, mail-in votes have favored Democratic candidates, a trend that has intensified since the 2020 election highlighted the partisan divide over early and mail voting. Consequently, Democratic candidates may initially report a lead based on early mail-in counts, although the margin could narrow as the vote tally progresses.

In 2020, for instance, Biden initially gained a lead as mail-in voting results were released, only for Trump to reclaim the lead as in-person votes were tallied throughout the night. This fluctuation in leads might be witnessed again in the upcoming election.

The suburban areas surrounding Philadelphia are seen as crucial battlegrounds, increasingly leaning Democratic. While Republican candidates dominate rural regions, Democrats typically garner strong support from urban centers like Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. Counties such as Erie and Northampton could also provide critical insights during election night, given their previous voting shifts.

The process of declaring a winner will depend on thorough assessments and the absence of feasible scenarios for trailing candidates to close the gap. Pennsylvania law mandates automatic recounts for races with margins of 0.5 percentage points or less.

Voter Registration and Turnout:

  • Registered Voters: 9,036,833 (as of October 14, 2024); approximately 44% Democrats, 40% Republicans, and 12% unaffiliated.
  • Voter Turnout in the 2020 Presidential Election: 76% of registered voters.

As the election approaches, the atmosphere in Pennsylvania remains charged, with significant implications on the national stage set to unfold.