In Atlantic City, amidst the expansion of legal gambling in the United States, there has been a long-standing prohibition on betting on the outcomes of U.S. elections. However, this may be changing soon as a federal judge in Washington recently overturned a decision by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission to prevent a company from offering bets on Congressional election outcomes. U.S. District Court Judge Jia Cobb ruled in favor of New York-based Kalshi last Friday, although the details of her decision were not immediately disclosed.
The judge has temporarily halted the case until a planned hearing on Thursday, where the rationale behind the decision may be outlined, and a ruling could be made regarding the agency’s request for a two-week extension in the case. Kalshi, in a court filing, expressed that the commission should not delay the process to prevent bets on Congressional elections from taking place this fall. The company emphasized the importance of access to the contracts that have been blocked by the CFTC for an extended period.
While no U.S. jurisdiction has permitted election betting and some states have explicit prohibitions against it, overseas websites readily offer such bets, with election betting being a common practice in Europe. The CFTC’s 2023 decision instructed Kalshi not to offer prediction bets on party control of the House of Representatives and Senate, citing concerns about impacts on election integrity.
Representatives of Kalshi did not provide comments, and lawyers representing both Kalshi and the commission did not respond to requests for feedback. If the judge had not postponed the decision, Kalshi would have been able to offer bets on Congressional markets. It remains unclear if other companies will follow suit, extending bets to other elections, including the presidential race. In 2020, major sportsbooks expressed interest in taking bets on U.S. presidential elections if legalized.
Overseas bookmakers listed Vice President Kamala Harris as the slight favorite to win the election, giving her a 54% to 55% probability following her recent debate performance. This potential shift in allowing bets on U.S. election outcomes could have significant implications on the gambling industry in the country.
