BERLIN — Initial election results indicate that the conservative party, led by Friedrich Merz, has claimed victory in Germany’s national elections, while a far-right group has made significant gains, becoming the nation’s second-largest party. Merz has articulated his vision of uniting Europe in response to challenges posed by both the United States and Russia, and he is poised to assume the role of Germany’s next leader. It is anticipated that he will seek collaboration with the center-left Social Democrats, who suffered a notable defeat after their governing coalition fell apart. However, the outcome has been interpreted as a setback for the traditional political parties, as the anti-immigration Alternative for Germany (AfD) achieved its strongest results to date.
The election campaign was largely centered around concerns regarding the stagnation of Germany’s economy and the pressure to address immigration, issues heightened by Merz’s recent push for a stricter approach. This political landscape unfolds amid increasing uncertainty concerning the future of Ukraine and the overall dynamics between Europe and the United States.
The electoral authority’s announcement revealed that Merz’s Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats have secured a significant majority of the seats in the national legislature, especially after smaller parties failed to meet the necessary electoral threshold to gain representation. Following the election, Merz expressed his intention to form a government by Easter at the latest, while firmly excluding any collaboration with the far-right AfD, now the second-largest party in the Bundestag.
For the time being, outgoing Chancellor Olaf Scholz will continue to oversee a caretaker government after leading the Social Democratic party to a disappointing outcome. The conservative Christian Democrats won 208 seats in the 630-seat Bundestag, whereas the AfD captured 152 seats. The parties that previously formed the governing coalition, including the Social Democrats and the Greens, have lost seats, with the Social Democrats dropping to 120 seats and the Greens to 85. The Free Democrats, which precipitated the early elections by exiting the coalition, failed to secure the necessary 5% of the vote to obtain seats.
The Left party managed to secure 64 seats, while the left-leaning Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance fell just short of the 5% threshold for representation. The AfD celebrated their election night results, with leaders asserting their ambition to position themselves as the main political party in the next elections, as their support base continues to grow. Since its establishment 12 years ago, the far-right party has emerged as a notable political influence but has yet to play a role in any state or national government.
The political landscape remains complicated by a metaphorical “firewall” against the AfD, as other parties have firmly refused to collaborate with them. The AfD is currently under surveillance by the domestic intelligence agency for suspected right-wing extremism, a claim which they vehemently contest. Furthermore, branches of the party in three eastern states have been classified as “proven right-wing extremist” organizations, a designation laden with historical sensitivities given Germany’s Nazi past.
The election, originally scheduled for later, was held seven months early after the Scholz-led coalition dissolved amidst rising discontent and internal discord, leaving little enthusiasm for any of the candidates. Merz emphasized on election night that unifying Europe amidst challenges from the U.S. and Russia is his top priority. Notably, prominent figures like U.S. Vice President JD Vance and Trump associate Elon Musk have openly endorsed the AfD.
Speaking to his supporters, Merz expressed his understanding of the pressures coming from both sides of the Atlantic, referencing recent interventions in the German electoral process: “The interventions from Washington were no less dramatic and drastic than those we have seen from Moscow. Thus, my absolute priority now is to create unity in Europe.”
As the most populous nation in the European Union and a significant NATO member, Germany plays a crucial role in shaping Europe’s response to forthcoming challenges, particularly given that it has been Ukraine’s second-largest supplier of weapons after the U.S. Merz emphasized the need for a stable government in Germany without delay, aware of the responsibility it entails. “The world out there isn’t waiting for us,” he reiterated, emphasizing the urgency against complacent coalition negotiations.
