McLEAN, Va. — On New Year’s Day, Brett Holmgren received notifications early in the morning about a tragic incident in New Orleans where a driver ran into a festive crowd. The catastrophic event resulted in 14 fatalities and is regarded as one of the deadliest attacks on U.S. soil in recent years, with ties to the Islamic State. In response, the National Counterterrorism Center, which Holmgren oversees, mobilized to assist the FBI in investigating the perpetrator from Texas and his sinister intentions.
This incident stands out as a significant instance of mass violence driven by religious extremism in the United States, yet it is set against a backdrop of escalating global terror threats that have fluctuated since the September 11, 2001, attacks. Holmgren highlighted the current, heightened state of threat in an interview, expressing concerns that this environment will persist into 2025.
The National Counterterrorism Center was established in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks as a key government agency dedicated to gathering, analyzing, and disseminating intelligence regarding international terrorism threats. Its work supports the White House and other agencies in shaping policies aimed at preventing further attacks. Holmgren, a seasoned counterterrorism analyst and former assistant secretary of state, was appointed as acting director last July, with plans to transition leadership once a new president assumes office.
Holmgren attributes the current elevation in terror threats to various factors, particularly the ongoing Israel-Hamas conflict, which has been linked to approximately 45 attacks worldwide since October 2023. Additionally, the repercussions of the Russia-Ukraine war have resulted in significant population movements, with individuals, some associated with the Islamic State, migrating to and settling in various regions, including Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and even the U.S.
Moreover, he noted the intelligence community’s increasing alertness towards rising tensions in Africa. Holmgren described this region as potentially presenting the most significant long-term threat to U.S. security, given the Islamic State’s expanding influence and resource investment there. Among current threats, he pointed specifically to the Afghanistan-based affiliate of the Islamic State, known as Islamic State-Khorasan, responsible for various brutal attacks, including a massacre in a Moscow theater in March 2024 and a bombing during the chaotic U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan that claimed the lives of 13 U.S. service members and numerous Afghan civilians in August 2021.
Attention also remains firmly on Syria, where an insurgent group known as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) recently executed a rapid offensive, resulting in the overthrow of President Bashar Assad’s government. Although HTS has historical ties to al-Qaida, its leadership has since espoused a message of religious coexistence and has not undertaken any attacks against U.S. interests in recent years. Holmgren praised HTS as an effective counterterrorism ally on the ground.
Despite HTS being classified as a foreign terrorist organization by the State Department—an designation that entails serious consequences—Holmgren indicated that whether this label will persist is a matter of policy discussion. He remarked on HTS’s desire to align itself with the international community concerning counterterrorism efforts while emphasizing the need for continued evaluation of both their rhetoric and actions.
In light of Syria’s ongoing instability, Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin reiterated the necessity for U.S. troops to remain in the region to thwart the resurgence of the Islamic State, citing successful intervention by intelligence officials in preventing IS from detonating a bomb at a Shiite shrine in a suburb of Damascus. U.S. officials are wary of IS potentially bolstering its power through abandoned weapons from Assad’s regime or a large-scale release of currently imprisoned fighters. Holmgren expressed concern that “a large-scale prisoner release in Syria could provide a real boost in the arm for IS at a time where they have been under significant pressure.”
The National Counterterrorism Center’s primary focus encompasses international terrorism, which includes incidents like the New Orleans attack, where the perpetrator, Shamsud-Din Jabbar, was influenced by foreign extremist factions. Jabbar, 42, expressed his allegiance to IS through videos recorded prior to his assault on a New Orleans crowd, targeting Bourbon Street. As of now, there is no indication that he communicated with IS operatives abroad or received direct guidance, leading Holmgren to underscore the significance of this incident as a manifestation of the domestic threat posed by radicalized individuals.
Holmgren acknowledged the effectiveness of U.S. strategies in disrupting overseas terror plots, while simultaneously stressing the need for further efforts to counter violent extremism within the country and the propagation of extremist ideologies beyond its borders. He asserted that enhancing these areas of focus will be crucial to preventing attacks similar to the one witnessed in New Orleans.
Despite the relatively low probability of another large-scale assault akin to September 11, Holmgren warned against complacency. He urged vigilance, cautioning that without consistent diligence, the potential for renewed threats could resurface.
