Aviation specialists indicated on Thursday that the crash of an Azerbaijani plane the previous day, which resulted in the deaths of 38 individuals and injuries to 29 others, may have been caused by fire from Russian air defense systems.
The Embraer 190 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines was flying from Baku, the capital of Azerbaijan, to Grozny in Russia’s North Caucasus when the flight was diverted for unknown reasons. It subsequently crashed while attempting to land at Aktau in Kazakhstan after traveling eastward over the Caspian Sea.
The aircraft went down approximately 3 kilometers (2 miles) from Aktau. Videos shared on social media seemed to depict the airplane descending sharply before it collided with the ground and erupted in flames. Additional footage revealed significant damage to the fuselage, which appeared to have been torn away from the wings, with the plane lying upside down in a field.
In honor of those who lost their lives, Azerbaijan declared a day of mourning on Thursday, with national flags at half-mast and a nationwide moment of silence observed at noon, accompanied by sirens from vehicles and ships.
At a press conference on Wednesday, President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan stated that it was premature to draw conclusions regarding the cause of the crash but acknowledged that adverse weather conditions had forced the aircraft to divert from its intended course.
“The information I have is that due to worsening weather, the plane altered course between Baku and Grozny and attempted to land at Aktau airport, leading to its crash,” he remarked.
Preliminary reports from Russia’s civil aviation authority, Rosaviatsia, noted that a diversion to Aktau occurred after the plane experienced an emergency resulting from a bird strike.
While authorities in Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Russia withheld commentary regarding the potential causes for the accident, an Azerbaijani lawmaker directed blame towards Moscow. Rasim Musabekov informed the Azerbaijani news outlet Turan that the aircraft was likely fired upon while in the vicinity of Grozny, demanding an official apology from Russia.
“Those responsible must face prosecution,” Musabekov was quoted as saying, emphasizing the importance of compensations for the victims. He warned that the lack of accountability would sour diplomatic relations.
As the investigation into the crash commenced, some analysts noted damage in the plane’s tail structure, suggesting it might have been struck by fire from Russian air defense systems targeting a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones have previously targeted Grozny and other North Caucasus areas. A Chechen official confirmed that another drone assault on the region was successfully thwarted, though federal authorities did not comment on the incident.
Mark Zee from OPSGroup, specializing in global airspace monitoring, suggested that the damage evident in the wreckage indicated that the aircraft was likely struck by a surface-to-air missile. “There’s still much to investigate, but at a high level, the probability of it being a missile attack is exceedingly high,” he estimated at 90-99% certainty.
Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security firm, alerted its clientele that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely downed by a Russian military air-defense system.” Osprey has issued numerous warnings regarding drone attacks and air defense systems operating in Russia during the ongoing conflict.
Andrew Nicholson, the CEO of Osprey, commented on social media, stating that this incident underscores the importance of their work and lamented the loss of lives that might have been prevented.
Independent Russian military analyst Yan Matveyev pointed out that images from the crash site suggested that the tail of the plane sustained damage consistent with shrapnel from small surface-to-air missiles, particularly the Pantsyr-S1 system. He remarked on the uncertainty regarding the pilots’ decision to fly hundreds of miles across the Caspian Sea instead of landing at a closer airport in Russia after sustaining damage.
“The crew may have believed they could still land safely for a while, as some systems appeared to still be operational,” he noted, also hinting at possible land restrictions in Russia.
Caliber, a news platform with solid ties to the Azerbaijani government, reported that the airliner came under fire from a Russian Pantsyr-S1 system while approaching Grozny. It questioned why Russian authorities did not close the airport, given the potential drone threats. Khamzat Kadyrov, Chechnya’s Security Council head, claimed that the air defenses intercepted drones on the same day.
Caliber also inquired why Russian officials did not permit the aircraft to make an emergency landing in Grozny or nearby Russian airports after it was damaged.
In response to allegations of air defense fire, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov cautioned against making premature conclusions before the formal investigation produces its findings.
Kazakhstan’s parliamentary speaker, Maulen Ashimbayev, echoed this sentiment, labeling allegations of air defense fire as unfounded and urging careful examination of the evidence.
Kazakh authorities reported that the passenger list included 42 Azerbaijani citizens, 16 Russians, six Kazakhs, and three Kyrgyz nationals. Russia’s Emergencies Ministry arranged for nine Russian survivors to be transported to Moscow for medical care.
