Trump Leads in Battleground States
Former President Donald Trump is now projected to win every major battleground state according to a new Electoral College map. RealClearPolitics’ polling tracker shows that Trump is set to claim all seven swing states, a significant shift in the race.
This comes after Wisconsin, which Vice President Kamala Harris had led since August, flipped to Republican, with Trump now holding a slim 0.1-point lead. Michigan, Nevada, and Pennsylvania have also shifted in Trump’s favor in the last two weeks. According to the tracker, Trump is now ahead by 0.5 points in Nevada and Pennsylvania and 0.9 points in Michigan.
Trump’s Lead Expands in Key States
Trump had already been leading in Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina since September. He currently holds between a 0.9 and 1.4-point advantage in these crucial states, which will play a pivotal role in determining the 2024 election outcome.
Trump’s stronghold in the battleground states now has RealClearPolitics projecting him to win the election with 312 Electoral College votes, leaving Harris with 226.
A spokesperson for Trump’s campaign, Steven Cheung, told Newsweek, “President Trump is outworking Kamala Harris, and voters know America can no longer survive under Kamala’s destructive policies of soaring inflation, an out-of-control border, and rampant crime terrorizing every community.”
Harris’ Remaining Stronghold
Despite Trump’s surge, Harris remains ahead in Nebraska’s second congressional district, where she leads by 9 points. Nebraska is one of two states, alongside Maine, that doesn’t follow the winner-takes-all rule for awarding Electoral College votes. Harris still maintains an advantage in this district, although the wider race has tightened.
Trump’s Polling Surge
Trump has had a favorable month in the polls. A recent Fox News survey from October 11 to 14, which polled 1,110 registered voters and 870 likely voters, shows Trump ahead of Harris by 2 points, 50% to 48%. This marks a 4-point swing from September when Harris had a 2-point advantage.
Similarly, an ActiVote poll from early October revealed Trump with a 1.2-point national lead, a reversal from September when Harris held a 5.4-point edge.
Changes in Key Swing States
Trump has also made gains in key swing states. An October 9 Fabrizio/McLaughlin poll shows Trump leading in all seven battleground states. A Redfield and Wilton Strategies poll conducted between October 12 and 14 shows Harris losing her lead in Michigan and Nevada, both of which are now tied. Trump has widened his margins in Florida and Arizona, while his leads in Georgia and Pennsylvania have slightly decreased.
Polling Forecasts
Despite Trump’s surge, polling models such as FiveThirtyEight’s forecast and Nate Silver’s analysis still show Harris ahead. Both forecasts predict that Harris is likely to win in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, which would give her the 270 Electoral College votes necessary to win.
However, FiveThirtyEight’s poll tracker indicates that Harris’ vote share is declining in key states like Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, while Trump’s support has grown slightly in Arizona and Georgia. In North Carolina, Trump’s lead has narrowed from 0.7 points to 0.5 points.
A Tight Race
In a recent newsletter, Nate Silver described the race as “razor-thin,” saying, “Recent polls show a virtual tie in key Midwestern battlegrounds, making it a true 50/50 contest.”
According to FiveThirtyEight, Harris leads Trump by 2.4 points nationally, with Silver’s own model showing Harris ahead by 2.5 points. As Election Day approaches, both candidates are neck-and-neck in what is shaping up to be a highly competitive race.
