WASHINGTON — Donald Trump, the Republican nominee for president, has made a bold claim that if elected, he would initiate the largest deportation event in the history of the United States. Central to his assertion is the belief that both legal and undocumented immigrants are unjustly taking jobs from African American and Hispanic workers.
However, data from the government suggests that the contribution of immigrant labor is beneficial to the economy and facilitates job advancement for American workers born in the country. According to economists, carrying out a mass deportation would impose significant costs, potentially up to a trillion dollars for taxpayers, and could lead to dramatic increases in living expenses, including housing and food prices.
Examining Trump’s statements, he has frequently resorted to an anti-immigrant narrative throughout his campaign. In a recent gathering in Reading, Pennsylvania, Trump characterized the influx of migrants as an “invasion.” He claimed that these newcomers are already undermining job security for Black workers, Hispanic workers, and union jobs. This rhetoric has been criticized as a derogatory way to suggest that Black and Hispanic Americans mostly occupy lower-level jobs.
A spokeswoman for the Trump campaign argued that the interests of illegal immigrants are prioritized over those of American citizens, particularly impacting the Black community, and blamed job growth under President Biden largely on illegal immigration. However, current data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicates that native-born Black workers often find employment in management and financial roles, as well as sales and administrative support, while Latino workers are similarly employed across various managerial and service industries.
The impact of immigration on U.S. economic growth has been notable. In 2023, the majority of population increase within the country was attributed to international migrants, primarily hailing from Latin America, who accounted for over two-thirds of U.S. population growth this decade. After reaching a peak in December 2023, the number of migrants crossing borders has significantly dropped.
Despite assertions from Trump’s advisors, who often cite a report from a conservative think tank, the consensus among economists is that immigrant labor does not detract from native job opportunities. Instead, they typically occupy roles that citizens do not wish to take, such as in agriculture and food processing. Research conducted by Giovanni Peri of the University of California, Davis, provided evidence that the influx of Cuban immigrants into Miami in the 1980s had a positive effect, raising wages for Black and Hispanic workers in that area.
Moreover, the claim that job numbers are finite is misleading; immigrants often help sustain existing businesses, consequently opening the door to more opportunities for native workers. Currently, there appears to be a significant shortage of workers ready to fill labor-intensive roles in the agricultural sector.
Stan Marek, who runs a construction firm in Houston with about 1,000 employees, supports this notion, stating that immigrants are not displacing U.S.-born workers. He remarked that many of his workers are reaching retirement age, while their children are unlikely to take up careers in trades or construction. Marek advocates for an identification system to address security concerns, allowing undocumented immigrants to contribute legally to the workforce.
Economists like Ethan Lewis from Dartmouth College emphasize that research overwhelmingly shows the economic ramifications of immigration have minimal negative effects on less-skilled native workers, with many studies suggesting that job creation for U.S. workers might even be enhanced by the presence of immigrants.
Should mass deportations be executed, experts warn that it could lead to an enormous economic decline. Trump’s plan may involve deploying the National Guard for the round-up of undocumented migrants. According to Peri, the costs associated with deportation could reach up to a shocking trillion dollars, while hurting the overall economy and driving prices for essential goods significantly higher.
Peri points out the critical role that undocumented workers play in the U.S. economy, stating that without them, certain industries, particularly those that supply essential food products, would struggle immensely. The financial strain from mass deportation could result in an annual loss equivalent to about 4% of the U.S. GDP. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen recently underscored the value of immigrant labor for economic growth, emphasizing that it does not diminish job opportunities for native citizens, thus reinforcing the idea that the economy benefits from a diverse labor force.
